Giants Ready to Defend Title?

The Giants made their final cuts yesterday, getting down to the league mandated final 53. The injury to Tynes forced them to carry two kickers which they accomplished by temporarily going without a third QB, releasing Wright and sixth round draft pick Andre Woodson.

The goal of every team is to build - to get stronger year over year - to begin each new season with stronger personnel than the 53 players who ended the season before. So, have the Giants improved themselves? How do these 53 compare to the team that just won the Super Bowl?

Let's start by looking at the draft. Five of this year's seven picks made the team:

#1 Kenny Phillips, S Miami (#31 overall)
#2 Terrell Thomas, CB USC (#63 overall)
#3 Mario Manningham, WR Michigan (#95 overall)
#4 Bryan Kehl, LB BYU (#123 overall *** Giants traded picks 130 & 194 to move up for Kehl)
#5 Jonathan Goff, LB Vanderbilt (#165 overall)

The Giants had two 6th round picks, Woodson and DE Robert Henderson, neither of whom made the final 53. This year's group of rookies are not likely to make contributions anywhere near last year's class - then again, who could? Phillips will be a starter - sooner rather than later. Thomas demonstrated some real athleticism this summer and I expect him to play a increasingly larger role in nickel and dime packages as the Giants progress deeper into their season.

Despite showing some real potential in the final pre-season warm up, "Super Mario" is not likely to see much action due to missing virtually the entire camp to injury. Kehl will see more game time action than otherwise would be the case due to Kiwi's move back to DE. Goff is injured and I was surprised to see him on the final 53 - either the injury wasn't sufficient to meet the league's IR rules or the Giants feel his talent is such that they are willing to carry him on the active roster while he heals.

On offense, the Giants are the same team as last year's version minus Shockey, Tyree and Whimper. The Shockey impact is likely to be felt more in the running game as the committee of three remaining tight ends struggled all pre-season with their blocking assignments. However, let's not forget that the Giants went into the post season last year - and won the SB - without Shockey's blocking. So, if they could do it against the elite of the league last year, what basis is there for thinking they can't manage it now? Well, for one, they didn't exactly run the ball with abandon during the post season - and make no mistake about it - the Giants - as with most championship teams - are first and foremost a running football team.

In that regard, in what is perhaps the biggest surprise involving the final 53, the Giants kept five running backs: Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw, Ware, and Droughns. They obviously did so because the coaching staff clearly believes all five are so clearly NFL ready that they are willing to carry all five on the active roster all season long if they aren't offered sufficient compensation in a trade. Could Ward or Ware be headed back to the Jets?

It is on the defensive side of the ball that the Giants are a completely different team than the one that won the SB. And, without diminishing the importance of the final drive and the heroics of MVP Manning, make no mistake about it, it was the Giants defense that won the SB. More specifically, it was the pass rush of Strahan, Osi, and Tuck - without whom there would be no Lombardi trophy. Now the Giants attempt to do what would have been impossible last February - win the SB without Strahan and without Umenyiora.

As I noted in my last post, the loss of Strahan was cause for concern not because there isn't a replacement for Strahan, but because there isn't a replacement for Tuck. His role last year cannot be overestimated. Now, with the additional loss of Osi, what was a concern takes on the portent of potential disaster. The Giants, in a twist of irony, find themselves in the same position as every other team in the league - searching for a way to emulate the ferocious Super Bowl pass rushing feats of, well, themselves.

The Giants hope to compensate for the loss of Umenyiora by moving Kiwanuka back to his natural position at DE. Even ignoring the fact Kiwi is still basically a rookie and has much yet to learn at DE, it is a bit much to expect a Tuck-Kiwi duo in 2008 to match the pressure generated by Strahan-Osi-Tuck-Kiwi during much of the season in 2007. Most teams were forced to double Strahan and Osi - something Tuck and Kiwi now face for the first time in their professional careers. Moreover, when Strahan and Osi took on double teams in 2007 they were part of a sack machine that included Tuck and Kiwi coming up the middle - a benefit that won't be enjoyed by Tuck and Kiwi in 2008 unless they find some way to clone themselves. The bottom line is that the Giants are very unlikely to lead the league in sacks this year - meaning they probably won't generate the type of QB pressure that played such a large role in overall team success last year.

So, are the Giants ready to defend their title? Are these 53 better than the team that just won the Super Bowl? It is difficult to conceive of any plausible argument that answers that question in the affirmative. To suggest that the Giants are a stronger team without Strahan and Osi is not only ludicrous, but an outrageous insult to two great Giants.

The Giants enter the 2008 season weakened on both offense and defense. They are likely to find running the ball more difficult than in 2007. On defense it will be interesting to see how Spagnuolo addresses the loss of much of his pass rush. Spags was heralded as a defensive genius in 2007 for his aggressive attack style schemes designed to pressure the QB. But now in 2008 he has far fewer chips to play with. It is interesting, however, that the secondary - an area of weakness heading into the 2007 season - is perhaps the defense's biggest strength heading into 2008. Can Spagnuolo create a scheme that uses the strength at secondary to compensate for the weaker front 7? It will certainly be an issue that will be very interesting - and fun - to watch as the season unfolds.

Fortunately, except for an early bye week, the Giants should benefit from a schedule that is difficult to complain about. They face the "easier" portion of their schedule early, ending the second half of the season with five of their six intra-divisional games over a seven week span (games 8 through 14). By that time Kiwi, Wilkinson, Philips, Thomas and all three tight ends should be much more adjusted.

Now for the silly - but fun - predictions. Giants go 10-6, make the playoffs yet again, and with an excellent chance to once again head into the post season playing their best football of the year. Once there, the Giants bring enough talent to the table - without Strahan and Osi - to beat any other team with tickets to the post season dance. My game by game forecast:

W- Washington
W- @St Louis
W- Cincinnati
Bye
W- Seattle
W- @Cleveland
W- San Fran
L- @Pittsburgh
L- Dallas
L- @Philadelphia
L- Baltimore
W- @Arizona
W- @Washington
W- Philadelphia
L- @Dallas
L- Carolina
W- @Minnesota

State of the 2007 NY Giants As Season Begins

Is this a rebuilding year? Many people react emotionally to that phrase and since I can't find a good definition, I won't use it. However, whatever you want to call it, one thing is clear - there has been lots of change. Last year's defensive and offensive coordinators are both gone. So is the special teams coach. There is a new QB coach. The most productive running back in team history has retired. And seventeen new faces grace this year's roster.

On Offense
QB - Nobody agrees with me, but I will forever believe that despite Montana's better statistics, Phil Simms was the better quarterback. That's a judgment I made with my eyes, not reading press clippings or the stats sheet.

My eyes haven't made me very happy with what I've seen of Eli Mannning through 2006. His statistics haven't mattered to me nor will they be of much interest to me in the future. And that future seems incredibly bright. I've seen a critical transformation in how Eli Manning is throwing the ball this year. His footwork is noticeably improved. He is stepping into his throws. His release is sharp and his passes crisp. He is throwing the ball with confidence, even the misses. Most importantly there has been a complete absence of wild erratic throws. Not even one wild throw so far this year. I'm not talking incompletions nor am I talking about passes slightly off target. I am talking the equivalent of a wild pitch in baseball - something I believe may very well be a permanent remnant of Manning's past.

While it is obviously very early - and conservative observers will caution against jumping to conclusions, noting the first half/second half disparities in his play over the past two seasons - I believe we are witnessing a totally different quarterback. Yes, his mechanics got worse when the team struggled over the past two seasons - but the emphasis is "got worse" because his mechanics weren't solid to begin with. I have great optimism that there has been a transformation in his throwing mechanics and that Eli Manning will end 2007 as the most valuable player on offense and will compete for a pro bowl this year and many years to come.

WR - On paper this should be a strength. Giants used high (2nd round) first day picks the past two years to add WR depth. Amani Toomer appears to be healthy. If Toomer and Burress stay healthy all year this unit can be special primarily because of the addition of Steve Smith. I think Smith is a natural football player. He may not be the fastest - or the quickest - or the tallest - but he has great football instincts. He gets open and holds onto the ball.

Yet, I'm worried. Granted, I tend to worry a lot and "project" all sorts of calamities around this time of year. But I cringe when I hear Burress and "back problems" in the same sentence. Back problems tend to be chronic and are not a good thing for anyone, but especially so for someone as tall and lanky as Burress. And while this is one of the best receiving corps in Giants history, there isn't a solid replacement for Burress. The loss of any starter hurts, but the dropoff of losing Burress would be steep. I'm confident Smith would hold his own if Toomer went down this year. Moss looks like a specialty player but not a permanent starter. And while Anthony Mix "flashed brilliant" during the 2007 pre-season and he is a great 6th WR, he isn't ready to replace Plax. So I'm just a tad worried about that back issue.

TE - I have said repeatedly in the past that Shockey has unique skills that have been completely misused in the past. The entire passing attack should have been completely designed around Shockey these past few years. Instead all too often he was used to block and as a secondary outlet for short gains. That was a huge mistake. Unfortunately Shiancoe is gone and now the Giants may have no choice but to use Shockey as the blocking TE. Matthews has looked good but he is a rookie and it is going to take time for him to even approach Shiancoe's blocking ability. And Matthews looks better than Boss both blocking and receiving. I look for the Giants to use Whimper in the blocking TE role but any way you slice or dice it, Shockey's role is going to be impacted by the loss of Shiancoe. While I look for Shockey's yard per catch to go up this year, at the end of the day I'm afraid I'll be left still yearning for the player I saw in his rookie year.

RB - Like all Giants fans, I fell in love with Brandon Jacobs the day I read the rave reviews coming out of that first rookie camp shortly after the draft. But as I've said before, I think the expectations being placed on this young man by the Giants faithful are totally unrealistic. The past two seasons we got to see Brandon Jacobs run free and run wild. Fans need to understand that is unlikely to happen with nearly as much frequency in 2007. This year the world's most brillant defensive minds are going to spend considerable time and effort devising game plans designed to stop Brandon Jacobs. You are likely to see lots of three and four yard runs through very heavy traffic instead of the "beast" wrecking havoc in the secondary.

Two caveats. First and foremost is Eli Manning. If he has the break out year I think he will, that is likely to force teams to back off efforts to load the box, which hopefully gives Brandon some additional breathing room. Secondly, those "3-4 yards and a cloud of dust" runs, coming from a big bruising man like Brandon Jacobs, are likely to wear defenses down late in the late 3rd and 4th quarters. At least that's the theory. But will Jacobs be worn down too? Only time will tell.

Many believe the Giants have depth at running back. I'm not one of them. For 2007 the success of the running game, in the end, will be on the shoulders of Brandon Jacobs. Yes, cut downs were difficult. Yes, I like what I see in Ward and Bradshaw is going to contribute. But they add versatility, not depth. If Jacobs goes down, the likely replacement would be Ward (assuming he can block), not Droughns. While Droughns is an upgrade over Carter, his role will be to give Jacobs a breather. While not as bad as the total absence of depth at QB, I believe a successful season depends as much upon Jacobs' health as Eli's.

FB - Not much to say. Douglas is hurt and may not survive the last cut due later today. Giants have practiced with Droughns but he reportedly isn't in love with the move. Matthews may see some time there but in the end the Giants are likely to scrap some of their playbook.

OL - I was against the release of Petitgout and still am. It is not because David Diehl won't do a credible job. He always has and he will now. Rather it is depth that concerned me then and concerns me now. The health of the offensive line is absolutely critical because there aren't any backups. David Diehl at guard and Richie Seubert on the bench, provided great solace to Giant fans everywhere. That no longer exists and the first time an offensive lineman is slow to get up the entire NY metropolitan area is going to hold its collective breath. This should be a very strong unit provided there is not a single injury across the entire line the entire year.

On Defense
DL - The starting defensive line is one of the strongest units of the team. It will be several games before Strahan is in top form and his holdout hurt the team in that regard. And it isn't clear how he is affected by the Lis Franc injury or his advancing age. But Justin Tuck seems ready to take up where he left off at the end of 2005. And Osi, Robbins, and Cofield make a strong unit with my only hesitation being how stout they play the run up the gut. There is considerable drop off after those 5 as evidenced by the continued presence of William Josephs.

LB - Pierce is going to struggle if he doesn't get more help up front from the defensive tackles. He should benefit by the upgrade in speed of Mitchell and Kiwanuka over Arrington and Emmons but that is probably counter balanced by the steep learning curve Kiwanuka is likely to experience.

I was not happy about the Kiwanuka move because I subscribe to the theory that you move a player who otherwise isn't likely to make it at the pro level at his given position. You don't move a probable future pro bowler. You find some other way to make adjustments. Having said that Kiwanuka has an incredible combination of athleticism, size and speed and should excel given time. Lots of time. As in years. That's not to say he won't be a good linebacker at any point this year. But he isn't likely to demonstrate the same level at LB that he showed at DE for at least another full year, maybe two.

Secondary - The Giants believe their future is Webster and Ross. However they didn't keep Madison and McQuarters for backup roles. I think that's a mistake. Ross is very raw with much to learn and Madison, even at this point in his career, is clearly the more accomplished player. However, Ross has a much higher upside than Madison or McQuarters and if this year's goal is to win the Super Bowl, then you bite the bullet early on and throw the kid into the water and let him learn how to swim. Of course the risk you take is that the learning curve may be so great you lose too many games and don't make the playoffs at all. But making the playoffs cannot - and should not - be the end goal. The Giants should be focused on winning the Super Bowl and an experienced Ross and Webster can get them there. Madison and McQuarters can't.

I think the Giants are even worse off at safety. Wilson and Butler have both shown glimpses of potential in the past but no day in and day out consistency. That is why I was so surprised at the release of Demps. The failure to upgrade the safety position is going to hurt in the defensive standings, especially against the run.

Special Teams
New kicker. And new long snapper. Let's hope the Giants don't play any close games.

Conclusion
New offensive and defensive coordinators. New special teams and quarterbacks coaches. No fullback or blocking tight end. Depth on offensive line gone completely. Most productive running back and receiver in team history gone. Linebacker receiving on the job training. No upgrades at all to perhaps the weakest starting secondary in the entire NFL. New kicker and snapper.

I think Eli Manning is on the brink of a great season but even so he can't do it alone. Hope springs eternal, but there are simply too many question marks to objectively conclude this team is stronger heading into 2007 than it was in heading into 2006. I think they will be stronger in 2008 than they were in 2006, but not in 2007. But remember, this isn't a rebuilding year.

Prediction
Philadelphia wins Division (yet again). Dallas second and gets wild card. Giants third with a 9-7 record and in the hunt for the second wild card.

2006 Prediction for the Giants

With the final meaningful pre-season games behind us and the start of the actual season looming, I thought it was time to record my thoughts on the state of the Giants.

The Good
The Draft. I'm thrilled with the new additions. While it is always difficult to realistically assess the value of draft picks during their first pre-season (I remember being giddy over Andy Headen his first summer - I honestly thought he was a 2nd LT at the time), I am still very impressed with this draft class. Kiwi has been awesome and I think Cofield and Wilkinson will be starting by the end of the season, if not at the very beginning (and I'm hoping they start from game one).

Free Agents. The defensive backfield looks greatly improved and I've been especially impressed with RW McQuarters playing in the nickel and dime packages. I get the sense they are on a mission and are going to level some hits. In my book, even if they are no better than last year statistically (and I think they will be heads above last year), this group will add to the team dynamic by bringing some toughness and a possessive attitude about receivers straying "into our territory".

OL. The offensive line has played well, which has me very optimistic about them as a group since they've been nicked up and the starting 5 have played very little together this pre-season. It is comforting to think that one of these guys missing a game or two may not create any real heartburn this year.

WR. The WR group also looks very strong and I believe if Plax, Toomer and Carter all remain healthy, it will be scary around game 7-8 with a healthy Moss back and, by then, hopefully in stride.

The Worries
Special Teams. I've not taped the games as I've done in the past, so I've not had a chance to actually study any film, but it is my sense that the special teams aren't all that special so far. This has to be a big worry if it turns out to be true. Granted, it's only pre-season and too early to get overly alarmed, but the one thing I thought TC got right was putting so much emphasis upon special teams. In my book you have to have a great defense first, tremendous special teams 2nd, and a powerful offense third. I just hope special teams play doesn't drop off from last year.

Lavar. Before the pre-season I thought the key to success this year was going to be the play at DT. While I am still worried about DT, I find my worries straying more and more towards Lavar. I love the guy. He is dynamic and I believe he brings great energy and confidence to the Giants. I couldn't be happier regarding the off-the-field benefits he clearly brings to the team. However, I am very worried that the condition of his knees are such that he may not be capable of being a physically dominating player. Of course, we don't need the all-pro Lavar and I don't expect that. What has me worried is the possibility Lavar may not even be an adequate player. If that turns out to be the case, it could be potentially devastating to the season. Not only is there no one to fill his shoes, but this entire team has bought into Lavar. If he isn't an impact player it could affect team psyche. I still love the pickup, primarily because he has me 100 percent sold on his character and his determination - and I've always believed 'character' to be one of the most important components in any team sport.

Eli. As my prior blog posts have indicated, I'm not sold on Eli. I love the mental awareness he brings and I sense he is slowly maturing into a position of leadership, but I've been worried from the beginning about the lack of accuracy. I haven't seen the improvement Coughlin says is there. Eli still doesn't seem to hit his receivers in stride with any great consistency- time in and time out - pass after pass. Forget the long stuff - long passes are exciting but if I had to chose, I'd much rather see a rock solid short to medium game. That is the bread and butter to any good football team and Eli hasn't yet shown he can hit his receivers in stride, game in and game out.

Brandon Jacobs. Tiki may not be able to sustain another year completely carrying the load of the running game (he had an incredible number of touches last year) and the Giants may need to find ways to spell him for more plays this year. The concern isn't Tiki's ability or efficiency - i't's about assuring he has fresh legs in the playoffs. I have high hopes for Brandon Jacobs and while his play during the pre-season has been adequate, I don't see the flash I was hoping for. He is clearly running with his shoulders lowered and that appears to be a good thing. He should be more successful in short yardage than even last year. But I think the Giants will need him to be in there on first down more often than last year and to break some 8-15 yard runs. He's done that 1-2 times this this pre-season but not enough to convince me he's ready to spell Tiki as often as I think is needed for the Giants to make a run at the SB. He and Tiki had the same number of carries agains the Jets, but Tiki's numbers were far superior. Brandon has tons of potential, but is he ready to step up this year? Otherwise Tiki may be worn down too much by the time the playoffs roll around.

Conclusion
I'm happier now with DT because I think Cofield is going to be a strength this year and I think the Giants sufficiently patched up the secondary to get by. I therefore believe the keys for success - and how far the Giants go - will depend upon:
(a) special teams playing (esp punt and kick-off coverage) at least as strong as last year;
(b) Lavar not being a bust;
(c) Eli's accuracy being 57+ percent or higher; and
(d) Brandon Jacobs successfully handling 12-15 non-short yardage carries a game.

Regular Season Prediction 10-6 (Division Winner)
01 L - Colts 33, Giants 17
02 W - Eagles 20, Giants 24
03 W - Seahawks 12, Giants 30 (revenge)
04 W- Redskins 20, Giants 33
05 L - Falcons 21, Giants 17
06 L - Cowboys 33, Giants 28
07 W - Buccaneers 15, Giants 17
08 W - Texans 17, Giants 37
09 W - Bears 13, Giants 17
10 L - Jaguars 28, Giants 20
11 W - Titans 20, Giants 33
12 W - Cowboys 17, Giants 27
13 L - Panthers 33, Giants 28
14 W - Eagles 21, Giants 35
15 W - Saints 13, Giants 28
16 L - Redskins 25, Giants 17

Super Bowl
I've watched every single play of every single regular and pre-season game since the 1970 season. I distinctly remember that at the end of 1984 it was obvious the Giants were building something special and by the beginning of the 1986 season you just knew the Giants were legitimate super bowl contenders. It's been 20 years and I've not had a similar feeling since (despite their two return trips). Until now.

This team isn't as dominating as the 1986 team, but overall this team is more balanced and has more talent (the 1986 team would still squash them in a head to head game - but that is simply because the 1986 defense was so incredibly awesome). For the first time since 1986 that tingle at the back of my neck is back and it is clear this is a very special Giants team. 20 years is a long time to wait and I plan to enjoy it.