2006 Prediction for the Giants

With the final meaningful pre-season games behind us and the start of the actual season looming, I thought it was time to record my thoughts on the state of the Giants.

The Good
The Draft. I'm thrilled with the new additions. While it is always difficult to realistically assess the value of draft picks during their first pre-season (I remember being giddy over Andy Headen his first summer - I honestly thought he was a 2nd LT at the time), I am still very impressed with this draft class. Kiwi has been awesome and I think Cofield and Wilkinson will be starting by the end of the season, if not at the very beginning (and I'm hoping they start from game one).

Free Agents. The defensive backfield looks greatly improved and I've been especially impressed with RW McQuarters playing in the nickel and dime packages. I get the sense they are on a mission and are going to level some hits. In my book, even if they are no better than last year statistically (and I think they will be heads above last year), this group will add to the team dynamic by bringing some toughness and a possessive attitude about receivers straying "into our territory".

OL. The offensive line has played well, which has me very optimistic about them as a group since they've been nicked up and the starting 5 have played very little together this pre-season. It is comforting to think that one of these guys missing a game or two may not create any real heartburn this year.

WR. The WR group also looks very strong and I believe if Plax, Toomer and Carter all remain healthy, it will be scary around game 7-8 with a healthy Moss back and, by then, hopefully in stride.

The Worries
Special Teams. I've not taped the games as I've done in the past, so I've not had a chance to actually study any film, but it is my sense that the special teams aren't all that special so far. This has to be a big worry if it turns out to be true. Granted, it's only pre-season and too early to get overly alarmed, but the one thing I thought TC got right was putting so much emphasis upon special teams. In my book you have to have a great defense first, tremendous special teams 2nd, and a powerful offense third. I just hope special teams play doesn't drop off from last year.

Lavar. Before the pre-season I thought the key to success this year was going to be the play at DT. While I am still worried about DT, I find my worries straying more and more towards Lavar. I love the guy. He is dynamic and I believe he brings great energy and confidence to the Giants. I couldn't be happier regarding the off-the-field benefits he clearly brings to the team. However, I am very worried that the condition of his knees are such that he may not be capable of being a physically dominating player. Of course, we don't need the all-pro Lavar and I don't expect that. What has me worried is the possibility Lavar may not even be an adequate player. If that turns out to be the case, it could be potentially devastating to the season. Not only is there no one to fill his shoes, but this entire team has bought into Lavar. If he isn't an impact player it could affect team psyche. I still love the pickup, primarily because he has me 100 percent sold on his character and his determination - and I've always believed 'character' to be one of the most important components in any team sport.

Eli. As my prior blog posts have indicated, I'm not sold on Eli. I love the mental awareness he brings and I sense he is slowly maturing into a position of leadership, but I've been worried from the beginning about the lack of accuracy. I haven't seen the improvement Coughlin says is there. Eli still doesn't seem to hit his receivers in stride with any great consistency- time in and time out - pass after pass. Forget the long stuff - long passes are exciting but if I had to chose, I'd much rather see a rock solid short to medium game. That is the bread and butter to any good football team and Eli hasn't yet shown he can hit his receivers in stride, game in and game out.

Brandon Jacobs. Tiki may not be able to sustain another year completely carrying the load of the running game (he had an incredible number of touches last year) and the Giants may need to find ways to spell him for more plays this year. The concern isn't Tiki's ability or efficiency - i't's about assuring he has fresh legs in the playoffs. I have high hopes for Brandon Jacobs and while his play during the pre-season has been adequate, I don't see the flash I was hoping for. He is clearly running with his shoulders lowered and that appears to be a good thing. He should be more successful in short yardage than even last year. But I think the Giants will need him to be in there on first down more often than last year and to break some 8-15 yard runs. He's done that 1-2 times this this pre-season but not enough to convince me he's ready to spell Tiki as often as I think is needed for the Giants to make a run at the SB. He and Tiki had the same number of carries agains the Jets, but Tiki's numbers were far superior. Brandon has tons of potential, but is he ready to step up this year? Otherwise Tiki may be worn down too much by the time the playoffs roll around.

Conclusion
I'm happier now with DT because I think Cofield is going to be a strength this year and I think the Giants sufficiently patched up the secondary to get by. I therefore believe the keys for success - and how far the Giants go - will depend upon:
(a) special teams playing (esp punt and kick-off coverage) at least as strong as last year;
(b) Lavar not being a bust;
(c) Eli's accuracy being 57+ percent or higher; and
(d) Brandon Jacobs successfully handling 12-15 non-short yardage carries a game.

Regular Season Prediction 10-6 (Division Winner)
01 L - Colts 33, Giants 17
02 W - Eagles 20, Giants 24
03 W - Seahawks 12, Giants 30 (revenge)
04 W- Redskins 20, Giants 33
05 L - Falcons 21, Giants 17
06 L - Cowboys 33, Giants 28
07 W - Buccaneers 15, Giants 17
08 W - Texans 17, Giants 37
09 W - Bears 13, Giants 17
10 L - Jaguars 28, Giants 20
11 W - Titans 20, Giants 33
12 W - Cowboys 17, Giants 27
13 L - Panthers 33, Giants 28
14 W - Eagles 21, Giants 35
15 W - Saints 13, Giants 28
16 L - Redskins 25, Giants 17

Super Bowl
I've watched every single play of every single regular and pre-season game since the 1970 season. I distinctly remember that at the end of 1984 it was obvious the Giants were building something special and by the beginning of the 1986 season you just knew the Giants were legitimate super bowl contenders. It's been 20 years and I've not had a similar feeling since (despite their two return trips). Until now.

This team isn't as dominating as the 1986 team, but overall this team is more balanced and has more talent (the 1986 team would still squash them in a head to head game - but that is simply because the 1986 defense was so incredibly awesome). For the first time since 1986 that tingle at the back of my neck is back and it is clear this is a very special Giants team. 20 years is a long time to wait and I plan to enjoy it.