Giants Ready to Defend Title?

The Giants made their final cuts yesterday, getting down to the league mandated final 53. The injury to Tynes forced them to carry two kickers which they accomplished by temporarily going without a third QB, releasing Wright and sixth round draft pick Andre Woodson.

The goal of every team is to build - to get stronger year over year - to begin each new season with stronger personnel than the 53 players who ended the season before. So, have the Giants improved themselves? How do these 53 compare to the team that just won the Super Bowl?

Let's start by looking at the draft. Five of this year's seven picks made the team:

#1 Kenny Phillips, S Miami (#31 overall)
#2 Terrell Thomas, CB USC (#63 overall)
#3 Mario Manningham, WR Michigan (#95 overall)
#4 Bryan Kehl, LB BYU (#123 overall *** Giants traded picks 130 & 194 to move up for Kehl)
#5 Jonathan Goff, LB Vanderbilt (#165 overall)

The Giants had two 6th round picks, Woodson and DE Robert Henderson, neither of whom made the final 53. This year's group of rookies are not likely to make contributions anywhere near last year's class - then again, who could? Phillips will be a starter - sooner rather than later. Thomas demonstrated some real athleticism this summer and I expect him to play a increasingly larger role in nickel and dime packages as the Giants progress deeper into their season.

Despite showing some real potential in the final pre-season warm up, "Super Mario" is not likely to see much action due to missing virtually the entire camp to injury. Kehl will see more game time action than otherwise would be the case due to Kiwi's move back to DE. Goff is injured and I was surprised to see him on the final 53 - either the injury wasn't sufficient to meet the league's IR rules or the Giants feel his talent is such that they are willing to carry him on the active roster while he heals.

On offense, the Giants are the same team as last year's version minus Shockey, Tyree and Whimper. The Shockey impact is likely to be felt more in the running game as the committee of three remaining tight ends struggled all pre-season with their blocking assignments. However, let's not forget that the Giants went into the post season last year - and won the SB - without Shockey's blocking. So, if they could do it against the elite of the league last year, what basis is there for thinking they can't manage it now? Well, for one, they didn't exactly run the ball with abandon during the post season - and make no mistake about it - the Giants - as with most championship teams - are first and foremost a running football team.

In that regard, in what is perhaps the biggest surprise involving the final 53, the Giants kept five running backs: Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw, Ware, and Droughns. They obviously did so because the coaching staff clearly believes all five are so clearly NFL ready that they are willing to carry all five on the active roster all season long if they aren't offered sufficient compensation in a trade. Could Ward or Ware be headed back to the Jets?

It is on the defensive side of the ball that the Giants are a completely different team than the one that won the SB. And, without diminishing the importance of the final drive and the heroics of MVP Manning, make no mistake about it, it was the Giants defense that won the SB. More specifically, it was the pass rush of Strahan, Osi, and Tuck - without whom there would be no Lombardi trophy. Now the Giants attempt to do what would have been impossible last February - win the SB without Strahan and without Umenyiora.

As I noted in my last post, the loss of Strahan was cause for concern not because there isn't a replacement for Strahan, but because there isn't a replacement for Tuck. His role last year cannot be overestimated. Now, with the additional loss of Osi, what was a concern takes on the portent of potential disaster. The Giants, in a twist of irony, find themselves in the same position as every other team in the league - searching for a way to emulate the ferocious Super Bowl pass rushing feats of, well, themselves.

The Giants hope to compensate for the loss of Umenyiora by moving Kiwanuka back to his natural position at DE. Even ignoring the fact Kiwi is still basically a rookie and has much yet to learn at DE, it is a bit much to expect a Tuck-Kiwi duo in 2008 to match the pressure generated by Strahan-Osi-Tuck-Kiwi during much of the season in 2007. Most teams were forced to double Strahan and Osi - something Tuck and Kiwi now face for the first time in their professional careers. Moreover, when Strahan and Osi took on double teams in 2007 they were part of a sack machine that included Tuck and Kiwi coming up the middle - a benefit that won't be enjoyed by Tuck and Kiwi in 2008 unless they find some way to clone themselves. The bottom line is that the Giants are very unlikely to lead the league in sacks this year - meaning they probably won't generate the type of QB pressure that played such a large role in overall team success last year.

So, are the Giants ready to defend their title? Are these 53 better than the team that just won the Super Bowl? It is difficult to conceive of any plausible argument that answers that question in the affirmative. To suggest that the Giants are a stronger team without Strahan and Osi is not only ludicrous, but an outrageous insult to two great Giants.

The Giants enter the 2008 season weakened on both offense and defense. They are likely to find running the ball more difficult than in 2007. On defense it will be interesting to see how Spagnuolo addresses the loss of much of his pass rush. Spags was heralded as a defensive genius in 2007 for his aggressive attack style schemes designed to pressure the QB. But now in 2008 he has far fewer chips to play with. It is interesting, however, that the secondary - an area of weakness heading into the 2007 season - is perhaps the defense's biggest strength heading into 2008. Can Spagnuolo create a scheme that uses the strength at secondary to compensate for the weaker front 7? It will certainly be an issue that will be very interesting - and fun - to watch as the season unfolds.

Fortunately, except for an early bye week, the Giants should benefit from a schedule that is difficult to complain about. They face the "easier" portion of their schedule early, ending the second half of the season with five of their six intra-divisional games over a seven week span (games 8 through 14). By that time Kiwi, Wilkinson, Philips, Thomas and all three tight ends should be much more adjusted.

Now for the silly - but fun - predictions. Giants go 10-6, make the playoffs yet again, and with an excellent chance to once again head into the post season playing their best football of the year. Once there, the Giants bring enough talent to the table - without Strahan and Osi - to beat any other team with tickets to the post season dance. My game by game forecast:

W- Washington
W- @St Louis
W- Cincinnati
Bye
W- Seattle
W- @Cleveland
W- San Fran
L- @Pittsburgh
L- Dallas
L- @Philadelphia
L- Baltimore
W- @Arizona
W- @Washington
W- Philadelphia
L- @Dallas
L- Carolina
W- @Minnesota