Is this a rebuilding year? Many people react emotionally to that phrase and since I can't find a good definition, I won't use it. However, whatever you want to call it, one thing is clear - there has been lots of change. Last year's defensive and offensive coordinators are both gone. So is the special teams coach. There is a new QB coach. The most productive running back in team history has retired. And seventeen new faces grace this year's roster.
On Offense
QB - Nobody agrees with me, but I will forever believe that despite Montana's better statistics, Phil Simms was the better quarterback. That's a judgment I made with my eyes, not reading press clippings or the stats sheet.
My eyes haven't made me very happy with what I've seen of Eli Mannning through 2006. His statistics haven't mattered to me nor will they be of much interest to me in the future. And that future seems incredibly bright. I've seen a critical transformation in how Eli Manning is throwing the ball this year. His footwork is noticeably improved. He is stepping into his throws. His release is sharp and his passes crisp. He is throwing the ball with confidence, even the misses. Most importantly there has been a complete absence of wild erratic throws. Not even one wild throw so far this year. I'm not talking incompletions nor am I talking about passes slightly off target. I am talking the equivalent of a wild pitch in baseball - something I believe may very well be a permanent remnant of Manning's past.
While it is obviously very early - and conservative observers will caution against jumping to conclusions, noting the first half/second half disparities in his play over the past two seasons - I believe we are witnessing a totally different quarterback. Yes, his mechanics got worse when the team struggled over the past two seasons - but the emphasis is "got worse" because his mechanics weren't solid to begin with. I have great optimism that there has been a transformation in his throwing mechanics and that Eli Manning will end 2007 as the most valuable player on offense and will compete for a pro bowl this year and many years to come.
WR - On paper this should be a strength. Giants used high (2nd round) first day picks the past two years to add WR depth. Amani Toomer appears to be healthy. If Toomer and Burress stay healthy all year this unit can be special primarily because of the addition of Steve Smith. I think Smith is a natural football player. He may not be the fastest - or the quickest - or the tallest - but he has great football instincts. He gets open and holds onto the ball.
Yet, I'm worried. Granted, I tend to worry a lot and "project" all sorts of calamities around this time of year. But I cringe when I hear Burress and "back problems" in the same sentence. Back problems tend to be chronic and are not a good thing for anyone, but especially so for someone as tall and lanky as Burress. And while this is one of the best receiving corps in Giants history, there isn't a solid replacement for Burress. The loss of any starter hurts, but the dropoff of losing Burress would be steep. I'm confident Smith would hold his own if Toomer went down this year. Moss looks like a specialty player but not a permanent starter. And while Anthony Mix "flashed brilliant" during the 2007 pre-season and he is a great 6th WR, he isn't ready to replace Plax. So I'm just a tad worried about that back issue.
TE - I have said repeatedly in the past that Shockey has unique skills that have been completely misused in the past. The entire passing attack should have been completely designed around Shockey these past few years. Instead all too often he was used to block and as a secondary outlet for short gains. That was a huge mistake. Unfortunately Shiancoe is gone and now the Giants may have no choice but to use Shockey as the blocking TE. Matthews has looked good but he is a rookie and it is going to take time for him to even approach Shiancoe's blocking ability. And Matthews looks better than Boss both blocking and receiving. I look for the Giants to use Whimper in the blocking TE role but any way you slice or dice it, Shockey's role is going to be impacted by the loss of Shiancoe. While I look for Shockey's yard per catch to go up this year, at the end of the day I'm afraid I'll be left still yearning for the player I saw in his rookie year.
RB - Like all Giants fans, I fell in love with Brandon Jacobs the day I read the rave reviews coming out of that first rookie camp shortly after the draft. But as I've said before, I think the expectations being placed on this young man by the Giants faithful are totally unrealistic. The past two seasons we got to see Brandon Jacobs run free and run wild. Fans need to understand that is unlikely to happen with nearly as much frequency in 2007. This year the world's most brillant defensive minds are going to spend considerable time and effort devising game plans designed to stop Brandon Jacobs. You are likely to see lots of three and four yard runs through very heavy traffic instead of the "beast" wrecking havoc in the secondary.
Two caveats. First and foremost is Eli Manning. If he has the break out year I think he will, that is likely to force teams to back off efforts to load the box, which hopefully gives Brandon some additional breathing room. Secondly, those "3-4 yards and a cloud of dust" runs, coming from a big bruising man like Brandon Jacobs, are likely to wear defenses down late in the late 3rd and 4th quarters. At least that's the theory. But will Jacobs be worn down too? Only time will tell.
Many believe the Giants have depth at running back. I'm not one of them. For 2007 the success of the running game, in the end, will be on the shoulders of Brandon Jacobs. Yes, cut downs were difficult. Yes, I like what I see in Ward and Bradshaw is going to contribute. But they add versatility, not depth. If Jacobs goes down, the likely replacement would be Ward (assuming he can block), not Droughns. While Droughns is an upgrade over Carter, his role will be to give Jacobs a breather. While not as bad as the total absence of depth at QB, I believe a successful season depends as much upon Jacobs' health as Eli's.
FB - Not much to say. Douglas is hurt and may not survive the last cut due later today. Giants have practiced with Droughns but he reportedly isn't in love with the move. Matthews may see some time there but in the end the Giants are likely to scrap some of their playbook.
OL - I was against the release of Petitgout and still am. It is not because David Diehl won't do a credible job. He always has and he will now. Rather it is depth that concerned me then and concerns me now. The health of the offensive line is absolutely critical because there aren't any backups. David Diehl at guard and Richie Seubert on the bench, provided great solace to Giant fans everywhere. That no longer exists and the first time an offensive lineman is slow to get up the entire NY metropolitan area is going to hold its collective breath. This should be a very strong unit provided there is not a single injury across the entire line the entire year.
On Defense
DL - The starting defensive line is one of the strongest units of the team. It will be several games before Strahan is in top form and his holdout hurt the team in that regard. And it isn't clear how he is affected by the Lis Franc injury or his advancing age. But Justin Tuck seems ready to take up where he left off at the end of 2005. And Osi, Robbins, and Cofield make a strong unit with my only hesitation being how stout they play the run up the gut. There is considerable drop off after those 5 as evidenced by the continued presence of William Josephs.
LB - Pierce is going to struggle if he doesn't get more help up front from the defensive tackles. He should benefit by the upgrade in speed of Mitchell and Kiwanuka over Arrington and Emmons but that is probably counter balanced by the steep learning curve Kiwanuka is likely to experience.
I was not happy about the Kiwanuka move because I subscribe to the theory that you move a player who otherwise isn't likely to make it at the pro level at his given position. You don't move a probable future pro bowler. You find some other way to make adjustments. Having said that Kiwanuka has an incredible combination of athleticism, size and speed and should excel given time. Lots of time. As in years. That's not to say he won't be a good linebacker at any point this year. But he isn't likely to demonstrate the same level at LB that he showed at DE for at least another full year, maybe two.
Secondary - The Giants believe their future is Webster and Ross. However they didn't keep Madison and McQuarters for backup roles. I think that's a mistake. Ross is very raw with much to learn and Madison, even at this point in his career, is clearly the more accomplished player. However, Ross has a much higher upside than Madison or McQuarters and if this year's goal is to win the Super Bowl, then you bite the bullet early on and throw the kid into the water and let him learn how to swim. Of course the risk you take is that the learning curve may be so great you lose too many games and don't make the playoffs at all. But making the playoffs cannot - and should not - be the end goal. The Giants should be focused on winning the Super Bowl and an experienced Ross and Webster can get them there. Madison and McQuarters can't.
I think the Giants are even worse off at safety. Wilson and Butler have both shown glimpses of potential in the past but no day in and day out consistency. That is why I was so surprised at the release of Demps. The failure to upgrade the safety position is going to hurt in the defensive standings, especially against the run.
Special Teams
New kicker. And new long snapper. Let's hope the Giants don't play any close games.
Conclusion
New offensive and defensive coordinators. New special teams and quarterbacks coaches. No fullback or blocking tight end. Depth on offensive line gone completely. Most productive running back and receiver in team history gone. Linebacker receiving on the job training. No upgrades at all to perhaps the weakest starting secondary in the entire NFL. New kicker and snapper.
I think Eli Manning is on the brink of a great season but even so he can't do it alone. Hope springs eternal, but there are simply too many question marks to objectively conclude this team is stronger heading into 2007 than it was in heading into 2006. I think they will be stronger in 2008 than they were in 2006, but not in 2007. But remember, this isn't a rebuilding year.
Prediction
Philadelphia wins Division (yet again). Dallas second and gets wild card. Giants third with a 9-7 record and in the hunt for the second wild card.
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