Monday, October 30, 2006

Giants Down Bucs - Chicago Looms

As anticipated, the swirling winds in Giants stadium rendered the Giants powerful offense one dimensional, allowing Tampa Bay to put 8 men in the box with one goal in mind - stop Tiki Barber and force the game into the hands of Eli. Also, as anticipated, it wasn't enough to allow Tampa Bay to win the game.

The Giants defense played a fantastic game. They limited Tampa Bay to 9 yards of offense in the first half right before Tampa's final drive of the half. That is 9 total yards. And the performance was turned in by a Giants D that had 3 starters that didn't dress (Arrington, Osi, and Madison) - along with Tuck - and Brandon Short was out for most of the game after getting his thigh dinged. It was quite a statement about the Giants strength and depth.

Brandon Jacobs had a huge game - with big runs when the Giants needed it - especially because Tampa was keeping Tiki bottled up. He played with attitude and my only complaint is that the Giants didn't go to him sooner when it was apparent that Tampa was keying on Tiki so heavily.

Almost as soon as the game was over, I found myself thinking about Chicago. I know, there is still Houston and it is bad form to look beyond the next game. But I'm a fan and what fun is that? If the Giants don't beat Houston then they don't deserve the Super Bowl talk. But that is a moot point because they are going to destroy Houston.

Before this weekend I had been thinking that the game against the Bears was a probable loss and that it wasn't an essential game for the Giants - just a bump in the road on the way to a Division Championship. However after this weekend I no longer feel that way. The Bears game is truly a critical game for the Giants if the Super Bowl is truly the goal in 2006.

Chicago completely obliterated the 49ers yesterday. They remind me of the 1985 Bears - which is not a good thing for a Giants fan. The 1985 Giants were an awesome team with only one problem - the path to the Super Bowl went through Chicago that year. The 1985 Bears had a defense for the ages (not an easy admission for a Giants fan since I believe the Giants 1986 defense was one of the greatest ever). But in 1985 Chicago had an absolutely dominating defense that was simply too much for the Giants to overcome in a windy day in Chicago. I am beginning to see parallels in 2006 to 1985, rather that 1986. In two weeks time we will see.

If the Giants can't beat the Bears at home at a time when the Giants are on a roll, how will they have any confidence when they take on the Bears in Chicago in January? When it comes to team sports, one cannot overemphasize the importance of team confidence - a swagger that develops - a sense of destiny that takes hold of a team's psyche. It is crucial and any player that has played on a championship team can tell you all about it. It is for that reason that the Giants must win in two weeks when they play the Bears at home - to provide them with the confidence they will need when they meet again in the NFC Championship game in Chicago.

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Giants - Tampa Preview

The Giants are on a roll and face an important test over the next two games. Historically, it seems that the Giants always seem to play "down" to the level of their opponent, losing games they are supposed to win. However the more I've thought about that statement, the more I think it's probably more myth than reality. It didn't happen to the Giants of 1986 (14-2) or the 1990 team (13-3). The reality is much more likely to be that Super Bowl bound teams win the games they are supposed to win - and teams that lose against weaker opponents do so for the simple reason that they just aren't very good.

The Giants will win both of the next two games - and do so despite a rash of injuries from the Dallas game. Injuries are unavoidable and strike every team each year - the only question being who and when. For the Giants, the "when" part of that equation certainly comes at a fortunate time (of course, let's not forget we are not even half way through the season). But, if there is a "good" time to have to play without a few starters, it is certainly preferable that it be against perhaps the weakest two opponents on the Giants schedule .

This is clearly a game the Giants should win. Tampa Bay is playing a rookie 6th round draft pick at QB and he was presumably a 6th round pick for a reason (although Montana proves the fallacy of putting too much emphasis upon draft position - but hopefully Gradkowski is no Joe Montana). The Bucs rank 27th defensively - 30th against the run and 15th against the pass. They aren't much better offensively, ranking 29th in total yards per game. In contrast, the Giants have the number 2 ranked offense in the NFL and the 21st ranked defense (I have experimented with rankings that adjust for strength of opponents played - and the Giants fare much better when adjusted, ranking 3rd offensively and 9th defensively). Either way, the Giants should win - and win handily - at home tomorrow.

If there is a wild card, it is the weather. High winds are predicted that could force both teams to become one dimensional. That could be a huge advantage for Tampa because their defense otherwise stands little chance of slowing the Giants well balanced powerhouse offense. If it is so windy that the passing game becomes totally moot, it could dramatically alter the outcome of the game.

One statistic of minor interest to Strahan might be sacks allowed. The Bucs have allowed only 11 sacks in 6 games, ranking 10th in the NFL overall. The prediction here, however, is that Strahan breaks LT's "official" record this weekend. The windy day that is predicted could make that less likely if neither team is able to even attempt to throw the ball. However, on the flip side, the odds are that the Giants will take a fairly commanding lead, thus forcing the Bucs to throw the ball in the 2nd half regardless how windy it gets. If so, that should provide Strahan with some prime sack opportunities.

Another statistic to watch is the turnover ratio. Tom Coughlin likes to emphasize the importance of that statistic, and right now the Giants are in the middle of the pack in the NFL with 11 takeaways and 11 giveaways. I am sure TC is not very happy that they are not substantially on the positive side of that particular ledger. It is a statistic that bears watching over the 2nd half of the season - starting tomorrow.

The Giants win the next two games because... (drum roll)... like the Giants of 1986 and 1990, Super Bowl bound teams win the games they are supposed to win.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Giants Stand Tall In Dallas

Dallas never seemed totally dead. There was always that small spark - the hint of doubt whether the Cowboys might come back. The Giants secondary gave up some big plays. The offense didn't have its best game. Yet, all of those "negatives" is what perhaps makes this win so convincing. The Giants didn't play their best game. Yet here they were on a Monday night in Dallas facing a game that was more important to the home team. And they still won.

This was the type of win that super bowl bound teams achieve. As the season progresses, I am reminded of that special feeling I had during 1986. The next test is whether this team can do what so many other Giant teams have been unable to - win against teams they are supposed to beat. A team that is super bowl bound simply doesn't lose to teams like Tampa Bay or Houston. These games should be nothing but confidence boosters that enable the Giants to go on a true roll ending up with 5 straight wins when the confront Chicago. And they should do exactly that.

As I said before pre-season ever started, this is a special season - a one time special mix of players. With Tiki announcing his retirement, that is more true than I had realized. The loss of Arrington may actually also be a positive. Before the Dallas game, it had occurred to me that Coughlin might be forced to consider leaving Short on the field and replacing Arrington with Emmons when Emmons was ready to return. Had that happened, it could have caused some emotional turmoil. I love Arrington's attitude and I get the sense the players feel the same way. Had Arrington been benched, it would certainly have not been a positive thing in the locker room. There is a touch of irony in the fact that his strong performance Monday night may have made the entire issue moot. However, the Giants now get the substitution without any turmoil and, in the end, that may be a good thing.

But for the selection of Kiwi this past spring, the loss of Osi would have been far more devastating to the team than Arrington. Of course, that is not why the Giants made the selection and it is not a validation of the draft (and I loved the pick from day one). However, it certainly is going to be a great opportunity for Kiwi to gain some valuable experience and comes at a perfect time in the schedule. Every team loses starters to injuries every season. Super Bowl teams are able to overcome those injuries and it is my expectation that the Giants will not miss a beat with the loss of Arrington and Osi. We'll know better after the next two games.

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Giants @ Dallas - Preview

Finally, a game that isn't "must win". Sure, a win Monday night would mean so much to these Giants. It would put them on a 3 game winning streak heading into a 3 game home stretch. More importantly, they would be 3-0 in the Division with victories against Philly, Washington and Dallas - clearly putting them in the driver's seat.

But, for me - in this game - on Monday night - in Dallas - how they play is more important than what the scoreboard reads at the end of the night. It is crucial that they demonstrate to themselves that the team that showed up against the Eagles and Seattle has been permanently put to rest.

Although Dallas is clearly a good team, the Giants can win this game. So far this season Dallas has wins against Washington (2-3), TN (1-5), and Houston (1-4), but lost both games against teams with winning records - Jacksonville (3-2) and Philly (4-2).

Dallas has three great receivers in TO, Glenn, and Witten, but can Bledsoe get them the ball without giving up too many sacks and interceptions? As usual, the answer will be determined by the interior line play and whether the Giants keep Bledsoe under constant pressure. Based upon their performance the past two weeks, I like the Giants to win that matchup.

On the other side of the ball, it should be no surprise that Parcells is building a great 3-4 defense. They have a very strong front seven and Demarcus Ware, whom I believe is the closest thing to LT of any young player I've seen in many years, is really coming into his own in his 2nd year. The Giants will need a good mix between play and pass on 1st and 2nd downs to keep Dallas guessing. If the offensive line protects Eli, I look for the Giants' receivers to have a big game Monday night. I think Plaxico is personally motivated to show up TO and I think Shockey, if he plays with the same aggressiveness we saw last week, could be a huge factor. I like the Giants to win this matchup too. The Giants can beat you on the ground - as Tiki demonstrated last week - or in the air. They simply have too many offensive weapons for Dallas to control.

This should be a close hard fought game. It is a Divisional home game for Dallas, and they have much more at stake. It is also Monday night and, for whatever reason, the Giants historically have found ways to disappoint in prime time. That was not true, however, on a Monday night in November, 1986 in San Fransisco when the Giants, down 17-0 at the half, came out and crushed the 49ers after an unbelievably great play by a TE by the name of Bavaro stirred the entire team. Shockey is cut from the same mold (at least on the field) and is equally capable of generating the type of play that arouses the emotions and solidifies a team into a winner - just like Bavaro did for the Giants 20 years ago.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Giants In The Hunt For Good After Atlanta

The Giants dominated Atlanta yesterday. They clearly corrected whatever had been wrong before the bye week. One gets the sense they will now remain competitive the rest of the way this season. If so, this can become that magical season so many Giants fans anticipated.

Tiki had an awesome game... but it was the defense that played with attitude right from the beginning. After forcing Atlanta to punt, Eli was intercepted on the Giants very first play from scrimmage and Atlanta suddenly had the ball back on the Giants 20. At that point things could have gone very wrong very fast for the Giants. But the defense stood tall, sacking Vick on the first play followed by an interception by Madison on 3rd down.

The defense never looked back from there. The stat sheet shows Atlanta with 223 rushing yards but half of that total came from the only two plays Atlanta made all day - a 90 yard run by Dunn and a 22 yard run by Vick. The Giants D contolled Atlanta the entire day. Vick, sacked a career high 7 times, never found any running room and was kept neatly boxed in the pocket. Dunn's 90 yard touchdown run early in the 3rd made it 14-3. Despite the score, the Giants defense was so dominating that it was clear it was only be a matter of time before the hammer fell.

That hammer was Tiki Barber. Following Dunn's run, the Giants ended up with the ball at their own 11 yard line. With their backs to the wall, Tiki ripped off a 29 yard run throwing a shiver of a forearm as he made contact. His next carry was for 16 more yards. It was Tiki time and the Giants held the ball for 21 of the first 26 minutes of the 2nd half. Against a team that prides itself on its run defense, Barber rushed for 185 yards on 26 carries, the fifth-highest rushing total of his career.

If Tiki was the hammer, the defense was the anvil. Following Dunn's run, the defense limited Atlanta to 29 yards rushing the remainder of the day. While the offense was busy putting up 24 unanswered points, the defense forced the Falcons to go three-and-out three straight times over the third and fourth quarters. The defense played inspired football the entire game - beginning to end.

Sam Madison, Osi, Cofield - all had big games. But the news on defense was the play of Brandon Short, replacing the injured Emmons. If Short continues to play as well as he has the past two games, he will not be moved back to the bench by Emmons when Emmons is ready to return. Rather, it is more likely that Emmons, once healthy, moves over to his old spot, forcing Arrington to the bench. I love Lavar's attitude and positive influence off the field... but if he still hasn't begun to make an impact on the field by the time Emmons is ready to return? We shall see.

Perhaps most significant for the future fortunes of this team was the play of Jeremy Shockey. Shockey had 6 catches for two touchdowns (surprisingly the first 2 TD performance of his career). More importantly he played angry mean aggressive punch-your-lights-out football. As Tiki put it after the game, "Jeremy had his coming out party". Jeremy Shockey adds another dimension to this team when he plays with attitude and the Giants have to be hoping there is much more to come.

This was a turning point for the Giants. Back to back wins for the first time this season. Winning away from home against a tough NFL team. Excited by the knowledge that while the win was impressive - it wasn't close to what this team is truly capable of achieving. They know they are back to playing solid football. And they know that from this point forward - they are in the hunt for good.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Giants - Falcons Preview

This is an important opportunity for the Giants to string together back to back wins for the first time this season. It won’t be easy. For all the talk about stopping Vick, Atlanta is a low scoring team that relies, first and foremost, upon its defense. A defense that, once again, is very solid and has allowed exactly one - that's right - one - touchdown so far this season (a trick play by New Orleans no less).

They have been especially stout against the run, holding Carolina to 65 yards rushing, Tampa to 40 yards, and limiting Arizona to a paltry 31. Only New Orleans, with 146 yards, has had any success running the ball against Atlanta.

They’ve given up a bit more yardage through the air but that is because teams are forced to throw against them. Tampa threw for 311 yards but that was on 53 attempts, completing only 28 for a 5.8 yard avg per attempt. Carolina was held to 150 yards (21-39, 3.5 yards per attempt) and Arizona had 156 yards (16-28, 4.9 yards per attempt). Once again it was New Orleans that had the most success, completing 20-28 for 180 yards (6.2 yards per attempt).

Although obviously very strong defensively, the Giants appear to have all the offensive weapons to present Atlanta's biggest challenge so far this year. The key for the Giants will be a repeat of last week’s zero turnover performance. They again need to establish the running game but Atlanta's defense is geared to stop the run and will be looking to shut it down early. Therefore, early on, I look for the Giants to use a short passing game to set up both the run and the long ball – and keep Atlanta’s quick defense off balance. Look for a lot of 4-6 yard gains on short dump (and screen) passes to Tiki and Jacobs, as well as the quick tosses we saw last week to Plaxico. If healthy, I’d also look for Shockey to get involved early. That should open up the run and also allow the Giants to take some shots downfield.

If the Giants play it safe – and have zero turnovers - they should win the battle against Atlanta’s defense. They just have too many weapons for Atlanta to handle.

On defense, things for the Giants are more straight forward. Atlanta’s offense is no secret. They depend almost exclusively upon the run. And although Michael Vick is exciting to watch when he runs for 12-15 yards at a clip, the bulk of the yardage comes from the running backs. Atlanta leads the league in rushing - by a wide margin - and although Vick already has two 100 yard games, the legs that make this team go belong to Warrick Dunn and rookie Jerious Norwood. Atlanta depends upon large chunks of yards from their running backs and they have to be the Giants primary focus on 1st and 2nd down this week.

At the same time the Giants have to contain Vick. It is foolhardy to try to do that solely with your four down linemen. As crazy as it sounds, the Giants need to use a lot of run blitzes on obvious passing downs in order to clog the running lanes and keep Vick in the pocket. On 3rd down look for Tuck and Kiwi to come on the field – either in the tackle spots or – I hope - as linebackers. I suspect this is one game Tim Lewis has game planned since early July because it is a perfect opportunity to use all his toys. I especially like Kiwi’s speed and would love to see Kiwi in a spy role against Vick in some obvious passing situations. If so, I think Kiwi will have a huge game.

The Giants have played well in domes over the years and they are due for back to back wins. The Giants have too much talent on offense for Atlanta to handle and I don’t see Atlanta running wild against the Giants. My prediction: Giants 24 Atlanta 17.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Giants Return To Their Roots Against Redskins

With their backs against the wall, the Giants needed to get back to playing physical "Giants football" even more than they needed a "W". And that is exactly what they did while defeating Washington yesterday 19-3. On offense they came out with a "shove it down your throat" run first game plan. On defense they dominated the point of attack, aggressively pursuing both Portis and Brunell.

The win over the Redskins yesterday was more impressive than last year's 36-0 rout. The Giants had been playing poorly, especially on defense, while Washington was on a roll offensively. It was a recipe for disaster. Yet the Giants D went out and limited a Washington team that had averaged 500 yards a game during the prior two weeks, to 86 net yards passing, 78 yards rushing, and a total of 3 points (scored only after a horrendous roughing the passer call on Osi kept the drive alive). The G-Men shut down Clinton Portis. The Giants secondary played a great game, holding Santana Moss to 3 catches for 39 yards. And Brunell was under pressure for most of the day, sacked three times. According to the NFL official stats, Washington had zero red zone opportunities the entire game.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants returned to "lunch bucket" football, running the ball 36 times and establishing physical dominance. The O-line played a great game, creating holes for Tike and Jacobs and didn't allow a single sack. Eli and Toomer had monster games and Buress had some incredible downfield blocks. The offense put together a killer 15 play touchdown drive in the 3rd quarter that ate up 8:05 on the clock and sealed the game.

This was exactly the type of game plan the Giants needed. For that reason my "game ball" goes to Tom Coughlin for remembering his Giants roots and adopting a game plan that allowed the players to play physical aggressive Giants football.

Side note: Where is Shockey's head? With the Giants backed up on their own 2 yard line, instead of getting down to business, Shockey turns around and engages Siragusa in the endzone about the offensive pass interference call against him during a prior series - all while the rest of the offense is huddled up. This kid needs to learn to focus.

Shockey Postscript: BBI forum posters correctly pointed out to me that Jeremy's chat with Siragusa was during a television time out and therefore not really that big of a deal.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Restoring Giants Pride - Redskins Pregame

We've all seen the film of Tom Coughlin's locker room prouncement following the comeback against the Eagles that the players had demonstrated some "Restoration of Giants Pride". Many - myself included - thought the emotion from that comeback might serve as a springboard to ignite this Giant's team. Sadly, what transpired that following week in Seattle surely wasn't Giant's Pride.

I remain convinced that this is the most talented Giants team since 1986. Of course, that is the reason why the disappointment has been so sharp, the worries so pronounced - the frustration so evident. The Giants knew last spring they needed to be in mid-season form by the start of the season because they faced the toughest part of a very brutal schedule right up front, at the very beginning. Instead, they have played passive disorganized football - and have not demonstrated any rhythm or flow on either side of the ball.

Sunday they face a rejuvenated Redskins team that is on a roll. Brunell set an NFL record 2 games ago, completing 22 straight passes. Moss already has 17 receptions in 2006 and is averaging 19.2 yards per catch. Last week he scored three touchdowns and was named NFC Player of the Week. Over the past two games Portis has run for 197 yards and three touchdowns, during which time their offensive line did not allow a single sack.

The approach the Giants need to take for this game is simple and straight forward. It has nothing to do with x's and o's, game plans or schemes. The players must be allowed to play themselves out of the doldrums they've exhibited thus far this season. They must be allowed to attack - on both sides of the ball. Give them an outlet to unleash all that pent up anger and frustration.

On offense, give the O-line an opportunity to establish physical dominance. Run blocking is aggressive, pass blocking passive. The Giants need to run, run and then - when the Redskins least expect it - run some more. A little bit of smash mouth football, baby.

On defense, stop forcing them to sit back and take punch after punch. Forget about "bend don't break". Let them be aggressive - let them attack. Attack the running game. Attack the quarterback. If the Giants do not get any sacks they will lose this game. They need to do whatever it takes to bring pressure - even if that means further exposing an already weak secondary. The pass rush needs a spark - a springboard to get itself going. They must bring the pressure on Sunday - even if it means bringing 6-7-8 men and getting burned for some long plays. Once they get the pressure going, things will open up for Stahan and Osi and soon enough the blitzes will become less necessary. A little bit of smash mouth football, baby.

The Giants have the talent to play dominating football - on both sides of the ball. This isn't a finesse team. This is a team that must be allowed to exact its pound of flesh. All they need is a game plan that allows them to play some smash mouth football. This is a make or break game and their season is on the line. This is the time - this is the game - for "Restoring Giants Pride".