Time To Look Toward 2007

Aker's field goal yesterday with no time left on the clock sent the Giants off to begin preparing for the 2007 season. And one thing is for sure - 2007 will almost certainly be eventful. The high expectations for the 2006 campaign, however ill considered, almost certainly guarantees momentous changes before next September rolls around. I thought I would record my thoughts now, while the end of 2006 is still very fresh, so I can see how my thinking changes after draft day, free agency, and training camp.

Eli Manning
Many of the issues facing the Giants are inter-related but none more so than the subject of Eli Manning. The Giants traded up to the very first pick of the entire draft for one reason and one reason only. To select the quarterback upon whose shoulders the franchise would rest for the next 10-15 years. To be the central figure on the team - the number one star - their future Hall of Fame quarterback. Many will say that isn't fair. I'm sorry, but that is what is expected of any QB taken with the very first pick in the entire draft. Of course that isn't Eli's fault - nor is it Eli's problem. And, in the end, it doesn't matter. It's past history.

What does matter is whether Eli can become the quarterback the Giants rely upon for the next decade even if he never makes it to the Hall of Fame. It isn't clear, after three seasons, whether he is that quarterback. Many seem to criticize his completion percentage. Or his quarterback rating. His interceptions. Or his failure to read defenses. His inability to find open receivers. Or his failure to step into throws. But I am not one of them. Those are simply characteristics of any young quarterback and are things that can - and will be - automatically "corrected" with experience.

My concern with Eli Manning is whether he can throw an accurate football with any consistency (this is not new, I've expressed this same concern for a long time). I am not talking about the long ball - I happen to think he throws a better long ball than most quarterbacks. No, my concern is his seeming inability to hit receivers in stride with a 12 yard pass with any consistency. I don't know if this is coaching. I don't know if it is correctable. But it is critical that the Giants find out. Too much has been invested in Eli Manning to simply give up and turn in another direction. At least not until it has been determined that the problem is not a function of coaching.

Tom Coughlin
Has Tom Coughlin coached his last game for the NY Giants? Apparently we will know later this week according to a quote from John Mara last night. The fact that the ownership has refused to publicly support Coughlin speaks volumes. I have mixed feelings on the subject. I think the team needs a tough disciplinarian but Coughlin seems more petty than tough. He has apparently lost a vocal group of players, but I'm not certain if that's not more a reason to keep him than to let him go.

In the end I believe the need to determine whether Eli Manning's struggles can be resolved by coaching makes all the pros and cons over retaining Tom Coughlin moot. As long as Coughlin remains, it will never be known if Manning's problems are coaching related. But there is a consquence - once Coughlin goes, Eli's window of opportunity to start performing gets a lot smaller.

General Manager
We know Ernie Accorsi is retiring and that the Giants will have a new GM. For some reason many of the beat writers seem to think that fact may bode well for Tom Coughlin because, they argue, management may not want to hire a new GM and a new coach in the same year. I think that entire concept is ludicrous. Either the Giants need a new coach or they don't. If ownership is convinced that Coughlin must go, they are not going to wait another year just for the heck of it. Furthermore it just makes sense that a good GM will have strong views regarding his head coach and should be allowed to make that selection.

The decision on GM will be a critical one - probably the most critical decision the organization makes this off season. It has been my perception that the Giants have struggled identifying talent ever since the loss of George Young. They need to finally find a GM that surpasses George Young in ability. Not an easy task to be sure - but the most important task they face.

Tiki Barber
Tiki Barber is going to be impossible to replace. Not only in the running game. Barber has more receptions than any Giant's player in history. Over the past few years he has represented an amazing percentage of the Giants overall offense. The Giants will have a completely different offensive style without Tiki Barber in the lineup next year. There will be a much greater burden placed upon Eli Manning to produce. There will be obvious pressure upon Brandon Jacobs to step up and become the feature back for the first time in his professional career. And, remember, this is an offensive line that is used to Tiki Barber finding holes - used to Tiki Barber cutting back. Barber's style of running made the offensive line look good just by making a block, even if not the block called for in the playbook. That is not likely to be as true with a more power oriented running back like Brandon Jacobs.

Overall Talent Level
I read again my pre-season prediction and analysis of the 2006 team. I was obviously enthralled by the team's talent. Perhaps the dizzying fall to earth has me going overboard the other way, but my assessment of the talent level of this team is much different today than it was before the 2006 season started. Looking at this team today, I have to ask where is all the talent?

Let's start with the defense, because it should be easier. Strahan is Hall of Fame caliber. The only question is how much longer that will be true. Pierce and Osi make my list because of what they did in 2005, not 2006. One can only have faith that 2005 wasn't an aberration. Kiwi shows tremendous potential, so he makes my list. That's it for defense. Four players. And of the 4 only Strahan has truly established his credentials.

Don't get me wrong. I love Cofield. I think he did a very credible job as a rookie. But I'm not ready to anoint him to being anything special just yet - not like I am with Kiwi (Kiwi himself is a stretch to make my list since he is 100 percent pure prospect). Wilkinson surprised me by what he didn't do. He didn't force himself into the starting lineup despite injuries and a weak linebacking crew and was actually not dressed yesterday. Tuck also disappeared before his injury. As did Torbor. Arrington is done. Forget about Emmons. And I don't want to even bother talking about anyone in the secondary. There doesn't appear to be anyone there worth saving. I didn't forget about Robbins. I think he is my Giant's defensive player of the year. But that may say more about the horrible state of the Giants defense than it does about Robbins. And despite my vote as team defensive player of the year, he still doesn't make my list of "core" players on defense - players around whom you are going to build your team.

On defense the Giants need two impact outside linebackers, yet again (see my post from almost the same time last year); a run stopping, heart thumping, bone jarring, hard hitting safety; and backup for both defensive tackles. Then, of course, they need to overhaul the entire secondary. From a needs standpoint, not much has changed from the end of 2005 to 2006 (which is inexcusable).

On offense, things are not quite as dire. The offensive line looks pretty solid. Snee looks like a future all-pro for sure. Petitgout continues to be solid. I love Diehl and Seubert. And McKenzie appears to have had a good year. O'Hara however seems likely to be headed elsewhere in free agency and will be an important component to replace. For those that remember the pre Jim Clack days, life without a quality center can be very difficult.

Wide receiver is obviously a concern. No complaints when Toomer was healthy but his importance to the overall team was dramatically displayed once he went down for the year. The loss of Toomer established beyond question that a third WR is critical not just because of what it means to have three threats on the field, but for what it means when one of the three goes down. The Giants cannot afford to start the 2007 season with only two proven wide receivers.

I love Jeremy Shockey. I love his exuberance. Enough that I can even overlook his off the field statements. What I love most is the Jeremy Shockey of his rookie season. I want that Jeremy Shockey back. For all of the complaints about coaching that I have heard, this is the one that seems most valid to me. Jeremy Shockey just isn't the same player ever since Tom Coughlin arrived. I know it isn't talent. I suppose it could be injuries. But my guts tell me it is how he is being used (or not used). He is a unique talent that should not be pigeon holed into some preconceived idea of what a tight end is supposed to do. Yes, he is a great blocker. And that talent should be used on running plays. But he should never - never ever - be held in to block on passing plays. Never. He should be the featured player in the entire passing game - not a two or three catch per game afterthought. Toomer, Burress, Moss - all the wide receivers - should be window dressing on the Shockey salad.

The biggest questions for 2007 on offense will be Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs. Both are unknowns at this point and success in 2007 is destined to rise or fall on their shoulders. I've already discussed Eli. Brandon Jacobs is an interesting prospect. I realize some will object to the term "prospect", but I don't know what other word to use for someone who is being asked to fill the shoes, at least partially, of the greatest running back in Giants history, but who has never been a featured back in the NFL. And not just for an entire season. Brandon hasn't been given that opportunity for even one single game. He is an unknown. Does he get stronger with his 20th carry versus his first? Can he handle 35+ carries in a game? Will he tire after a grueling 16 game season? We simply don't know.

It seems there are many more questions heading into the 2007 season than there were heading into 2006. One thing is for certain. It will be an interesting 8-9 months for Giants fans.