Positional Needs For 2007

While a bit early (the 2006 Conference Championships haven't even been played), I find myself with time on my hands and decided to memorialize my thoughts on positional needs the Giants face.

OFFENSE
Although the defensive side of the ball would appear to be a priority, surprisingly there are quite a lot of needs on offense that must be addressed this off season.

Wide Receiver
The Giants need depth at wide receiver. It would be nice to be able to field a legitimate 4 WR set in 2007. The Giants ended 2006 with 6 wide receivers on the 53 man roster: Burress, Carter, Jennings, Moss, Tyree, and Watts. Assuming Toomer is healthy and Tyree continues to occupy a spot because of Special Teams play (a big "if" in my mind), that leaves Carter and Jennings as the spots to be upgraded.

That presents a problem. Carter and Jennings represent 2/3rds of the Giants speed at wide receiver. And speed kills. Having true world class speed at wide receiver is a critical component of any passing attack because of the openings created simply by stretching the defense vertically. While the Giants could decide that Sinorice Moss can fill that role without any backup, it clearly wouldn't be preferable. Finding a legitimate wide receiver with blazing speed who can catch the ball will require either using a very high draft pick or serious money in free agency (assuming such players are even available). Unless they decide to go with Moss as the sole speed option, I am not sure the Giants can afford to replace Tim Carter this year. Indeed, that is precisely why Tim Carter has remained on the team so long already.

Finding a solid possession receiver - a receiver who runs solid routes, finds openings, comes back to the ball, and has great hands, isn't easy either. Everybody wants one. The bottom line is that while it is easy to identify wide receiver as a position of need, it isn't a position that is easily upgraded - at least not without spending "capital" that is probably better spent elsewhere in getting ready for 2007.

Running Back
Everyone seems to believe that Brandon Jacobs is the real deal and heir apparent to Tiki Barber. That begs the issue. In the NFL you need at least two solid running backs to seriously contend for the Super Bowl. The Giants in 2006 were just fine with Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs. Without any changes, in 2007 the running backs will be Jacobs and Derrick Ward, assuming he is fully healed. The only other backs on the roster are Robert Douglas, James Sims, and Chad Morton. Jacobs and Ward are both relatively unknown quantities when it comes to handling the full load over an entire NFL season. It would appear foolhardy to go into the 2007 season without picking up a proven running back to compliment Jacobs. If the key is "proven", that would appear to dictate free agency rather than the draft which, of course, would further restrict the Giants maneuverability.

Tight End
Visanthe Shiancoe is an unrestricted free agent. With so many other needs to fill, the Giants can ill afford to add tight end to the list. That fact is probably well known to Shiancoe's agent which gives the tight end quite a bit of negotiating leverage, making signing him even more problematic. The Giants can't afford to be held up for a king's ransom but they can't afford to be in the market for a tight end either. How this issue gets resolved will be critical for the Giants during the off-season.

Offensive Line
Shaun O'Hara, another unrestricted free agent, is reportedly already seeking a king's ransom from the Giants. While many love to criticize O'Hara, the center position is a critical blocking component on the offensive line and, as with Shiancoe, the Giants simply cannot afford to lose O'Hara simply because that would likely mean spending free agency money or draft picks that they otherwise have targeted at other more critical areas of need. One savings grace for the Giants is the versatility of their linemen and Rich Seubert can play center if they can't keep O'Hara. They would still, however, have to replace the loss of depth and that would not be easily accomplished.

Beyond O'Hara, the Giants already have a glaring need to find a legitimate backup tackle. Wily old Bob Whitfield seems to have worn out his welcome but for all the bashing he took during 2006, Giants fans may regret letting him go when they come to realize that offensive tackles are an incredibly rare - and expensive - talent to locate in the NFL. The Giants are already on thin ice carrying Guy Whimper as a project making it all the more important that the one true backup they do carry be a legitimate tackle. Once again, this will not be an easy position to fill.

Backup Quarterback
Moving Jared Lorenzen into the #2 spot behind Manning seemed to signal that the Giants were sold on keeping Lorenzen around as a long term project. The Giants cannot go into the 2007 with Jared Lorenzen as the #2 QB behind Eli Manning. If Manning goes down, the Giants need to have a QB that is ready to take the helm and continue winning. If Lorenzen really is the #2 option ahead of Tim Hasselbeck then the Giants must find a backup QB who moves Jared back to #3.

DEFENSE
While there are a surprising number of issues facing the Giants on offense, it should come as no surprise that their defense needs a serious infusion of talent. An interesting issue will be whether the new defensive coordinator will want to continue playing a 4-3. However because Coughlin knows he must "win now", it is highly unlikely he will allow such a switch next year because of the impact upon the defensive line.

Defensive Line
With Strahan, Umenyiora, Kiwanuka, and Tuck, the Giants are set a defensive end. Defensive tackle, however, is another story. The Giants need defensive tackle to be a strength and that means four players in a very competitive rotation. Robbins had a solid year. Cofield had a good rookie year. In a perfect world the Giants replace William Joseph and Jonas Seawright with two players that give both Robbins and Cofield a run for their money for playing time.

Linebacker
Antonio Pierce is the best linebacker on the roster. Yet 2005 was a better year for him than 2006. I suspect that was more to do with the overall problems of the defense than it was about Pierce himself. The real problem is at both outside positions. Everyone seems to believe Arrington is the answer at one outside position. I am not in that camp. As I've noted here many times, I love the positive energy and attitude Lamar brings to the locker room. However it seems clear that injuries to his knees have seriously limited his abilities. The Giants came out of pre-season announcing that Arrington would have limited practice sessions during the week for the entire season in an effort to keep his knees as fresh as possible. You simply cannot play NFL football if you are so injured that the team has to announce that they are going to restrict your practice sessions all year long.

On the other side the Giants have Carlos Emmons. I stated here at the end of the 2005 season that Emmons had played his last game in a Giants uniform. Clearly I was wrong. I do not believe I will be wrong again. That leaves the Giants with Brandon Short, Reggie Torbor, and Gerris Wilkinson. Short had some good games. Torber was invisible. And it was very disappointing to me that, with all their troubles at linebacker, Gerris Wilkinson didn't force his way into the starting lineup - and worse, ended the year not even being dressed.

Defense wins super bowls (every super bowl winner since 1983 has had a defense ranked no worse than 8th in the entire league - that is almost 25 teams in a row without one exception). And I've always been a believer that a dominant front 7 is the core ingredient to a top ten defense. And, if I could choose between having an awesome defensive line or an awesome set of linebackers, I would take the linebackers every single time. Of course finding big, fast, mean linebackers with the quickness to rush the passer, the strength and meanness to stuff the run, and the speed to cover today's tight ends is the dream of every NFL team. That is why they are so critical to have. And the best the Giants have is Antonio Pierce in the middle. The Giants need to seriously upgrade their linebacking core and for now they need two stud, potential all-pro, outside linebackers.

Secondary
This is where the Giants perhaps need the most help. It is also the position that I believe, player for player, brings the least bang for the buck. Having said that, Madison was a great corner in his day but appears to have lost a step but would appear to be adequate if he was surrounded by otherwise great talent. Webster clearly struggled. He continually gave up too much of a cushion and often seemed lost in space. His much heralded ball hawking abilities certainly haven't seemed to come to fruition. McQuarters played well, as I noted here during the pre-season. He would make a solid nickle back.

As bad as coverage seemed all year long - continuing the trend from 2005, I believe strong physical safeties are more important to a dominant defense than corners. Unfortunately both Demps and Gibril Wilson struggled. I've read that Demps was still recovering from injury and that many have high expectations for 2007. Even if that is true, it would seem to explain his coverage failures more than it would explain his inability to tackle. Before addressing cornerback - despite the obvious needs at that position - I think the Giants need to field two tough, bone crunching, safeties.

Summary
The Giants have more needs than they can be expected to fill this off-season. WR(2), RB, OT, QB, DT(2), LB(2), CB(2), and Safety(2). That list represents 13 players. First and foremost they must make certain Center and backup TE are not added to that list.

I believe the biggest need - the position that would positively impact the Giants the most - is outside linebacker. In fact, I believe the need at linebacker is so great and the position to be so critical that, despite the large number of other positional needs, I would like to see the Giants select linebackers with 3 of their first 4 picks in this year's draft - trading down as necessary to avoid forcing any pick. I've read this draft does not have many, if any, first round line linebacking talent nor is it particularly deep for linebackers overall. Obviously the Giants can't pick three linebackers in the first four picks just for the sake of picking them.

If they can't hit a home run in free agency (and their record in free agency when it comes to linebackers hasn't been great), they need to add an infusion of new linebacking blood via the draft. Indeed, even if they somehow find the money and add a great linebacker via free agency (which I seriously doubt they have the cap room to do), they still need an infusion of new blood via the draft to compete at linebacker. Trade down - maybe give up their first round pick in exchange for a #2 and a #3 and use both second round picks on linebackers. The Giants will not be a legitimate super bowl contending team until they have three dominant linebackers. And I want them to find a way to do that for 2007.

Time To Look Toward 2007

Aker's field goal yesterday with no time left on the clock sent the Giants off to begin preparing for the 2007 season. And one thing is for sure - 2007 will almost certainly be eventful. The high expectations for the 2006 campaign, however ill considered, almost certainly guarantees momentous changes before next September rolls around. I thought I would record my thoughts now, while the end of 2006 is still very fresh, so I can see how my thinking changes after draft day, free agency, and training camp.

Eli Manning
Many of the issues facing the Giants are inter-related but none more so than the subject of Eli Manning. The Giants traded up to the very first pick of the entire draft for one reason and one reason only. To select the quarterback upon whose shoulders the franchise would rest for the next 10-15 years. To be the central figure on the team - the number one star - their future Hall of Fame quarterback. Many will say that isn't fair. I'm sorry, but that is what is expected of any QB taken with the very first pick in the entire draft. Of course that isn't Eli's fault - nor is it Eli's problem. And, in the end, it doesn't matter. It's past history.

What does matter is whether Eli can become the quarterback the Giants rely upon for the next decade even if he never makes it to the Hall of Fame. It isn't clear, after three seasons, whether he is that quarterback. Many seem to criticize his completion percentage. Or his quarterback rating. His interceptions. Or his failure to read defenses. His inability to find open receivers. Or his failure to step into throws. But I am not one of them. Those are simply characteristics of any young quarterback and are things that can - and will be - automatically "corrected" with experience.

My concern with Eli Manning is whether he can throw an accurate football with any consistency (this is not new, I've expressed this same concern for a long time). I am not talking about the long ball - I happen to think he throws a better long ball than most quarterbacks. No, my concern is his seeming inability to hit receivers in stride with a 12 yard pass with any consistency. I don't know if this is coaching. I don't know if it is correctable. But it is critical that the Giants find out. Too much has been invested in Eli Manning to simply give up and turn in another direction. At least not until it has been determined that the problem is not a function of coaching.

Tom Coughlin
Has Tom Coughlin coached his last game for the NY Giants? Apparently we will know later this week according to a quote from John Mara last night. The fact that the ownership has refused to publicly support Coughlin speaks volumes. I have mixed feelings on the subject. I think the team needs a tough disciplinarian but Coughlin seems more petty than tough. He has apparently lost a vocal group of players, but I'm not certain if that's not more a reason to keep him than to let him go.

In the end I believe the need to determine whether Eli Manning's struggles can be resolved by coaching makes all the pros and cons over retaining Tom Coughlin moot. As long as Coughlin remains, it will never be known if Manning's problems are coaching related. But there is a consquence - once Coughlin goes, Eli's window of opportunity to start performing gets a lot smaller.

General Manager
We know Ernie Accorsi is retiring and that the Giants will have a new GM. For some reason many of the beat writers seem to think that fact may bode well for Tom Coughlin because, they argue, management may not want to hire a new GM and a new coach in the same year. I think that entire concept is ludicrous. Either the Giants need a new coach or they don't. If ownership is convinced that Coughlin must go, they are not going to wait another year just for the heck of it. Furthermore it just makes sense that a good GM will have strong views regarding his head coach and should be allowed to make that selection.

The decision on GM will be a critical one - probably the most critical decision the organization makes this off season. It has been my perception that the Giants have struggled identifying talent ever since the loss of George Young. They need to finally find a GM that surpasses George Young in ability. Not an easy task to be sure - but the most important task they face.

Tiki Barber
Tiki Barber is going to be impossible to replace. Not only in the running game. Barber has more receptions than any Giant's player in history. Over the past few years he has represented an amazing percentage of the Giants overall offense. The Giants will have a completely different offensive style without Tiki Barber in the lineup next year. There will be a much greater burden placed upon Eli Manning to produce. There will be obvious pressure upon Brandon Jacobs to step up and become the feature back for the first time in his professional career. And, remember, this is an offensive line that is used to Tiki Barber finding holes - used to Tiki Barber cutting back. Barber's style of running made the offensive line look good just by making a block, even if not the block called for in the playbook. That is not likely to be as true with a more power oriented running back like Brandon Jacobs.

Overall Talent Level
I read again my pre-season prediction and analysis of the 2006 team. I was obviously enthralled by the team's talent. Perhaps the dizzying fall to earth has me going overboard the other way, but my assessment of the talent level of this team is much different today than it was before the 2006 season started. Looking at this team today, I have to ask where is all the talent?

Let's start with the defense, because it should be easier. Strahan is Hall of Fame caliber. The only question is how much longer that will be true. Pierce and Osi make my list because of what they did in 2005, not 2006. One can only have faith that 2005 wasn't an aberration. Kiwi shows tremendous potential, so he makes my list. That's it for defense. Four players. And of the 4 only Strahan has truly established his credentials.

Don't get me wrong. I love Cofield. I think he did a very credible job as a rookie. But I'm not ready to anoint him to being anything special just yet - not like I am with Kiwi (Kiwi himself is a stretch to make my list since he is 100 percent pure prospect). Wilkinson surprised me by what he didn't do. He didn't force himself into the starting lineup despite injuries and a weak linebacking crew and was actually not dressed yesterday. Tuck also disappeared before his injury. As did Torbor. Arrington is done. Forget about Emmons. And I don't want to even bother talking about anyone in the secondary. There doesn't appear to be anyone there worth saving. I didn't forget about Robbins. I think he is my Giant's defensive player of the year. But that may say more about the horrible state of the Giants defense than it does about Robbins. And despite my vote as team defensive player of the year, he still doesn't make my list of "core" players on defense - players around whom you are going to build your team.

On defense the Giants need two impact outside linebackers, yet again (see my post from almost the same time last year); a run stopping, heart thumping, bone jarring, hard hitting safety; and backup for both defensive tackles. Then, of course, they need to overhaul the entire secondary. From a needs standpoint, not much has changed from the end of 2005 to 2006 (which is inexcusable).

On offense, things are not quite as dire. The offensive line looks pretty solid. Snee looks like a future all-pro for sure. Petitgout continues to be solid. I love Diehl and Seubert. And McKenzie appears to have had a good year. O'Hara however seems likely to be headed elsewhere in free agency and will be an important component to replace. For those that remember the pre Jim Clack days, life without a quality center can be very difficult.

Wide receiver is obviously a concern. No complaints when Toomer was healthy but his importance to the overall team was dramatically displayed once he went down for the year. The loss of Toomer established beyond question that a third WR is critical not just because of what it means to have three threats on the field, but for what it means when one of the three goes down. The Giants cannot afford to start the 2007 season with only two proven wide receivers.

I love Jeremy Shockey. I love his exuberance. Enough that I can even overlook his off the field statements. What I love most is the Jeremy Shockey of his rookie season. I want that Jeremy Shockey back. For all of the complaints about coaching that I have heard, this is the one that seems most valid to me. Jeremy Shockey just isn't the same player ever since Tom Coughlin arrived. I know it isn't talent. I suppose it could be injuries. But my guts tell me it is how he is being used (or not used). He is a unique talent that should not be pigeon holed into some preconceived idea of what a tight end is supposed to do. Yes, he is a great blocker. And that talent should be used on running plays. But he should never - never ever - be held in to block on passing plays. Never. He should be the featured player in the entire passing game - not a two or three catch per game afterthought. Toomer, Burress, Moss - all the wide receivers - should be window dressing on the Shockey salad.

The biggest questions for 2007 on offense will be Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs. Both are unknowns at this point and success in 2007 is destined to rise or fall on their shoulders. I've already discussed Eli. Brandon Jacobs is an interesting prospect. I realize some will object to the term "prospect", but I don't know what other word to use for someone who is being asked to fill the shoes, at least partially, of the greatest running back in Giants history, but who has never been a featured back in the NFL. And not just for an entire season. Brandon hasn't been given that opportunity for even one single game. He is an unknown. Does he get stronger with his 20th carry versus his first? Can he handle 35+ carries in a game? Will he tire after a grueling 16 game season? We simply don't know.

It seems there are many more questions heading into the 2007 season than there were heading into 2006. One thing is for certain. It will be an interesting 8-9 months for Giants fans.

Giants - Eagles And A Tale of Two Men

Is this just a team of average talent whose mediocrity was exposed by injuries to a few players? Or is this a talented bunch of underachievers? Either way, it would appear the Giants stand no chance tomorrow against the Eagles. After all the Eagles are currently the hottest team in the NFC while the Giants appear totally lifeless and dead in the water. It would appear that the outcome has already been determined with only the details to be filled in.

Well, I'm not so sure. First, this is not just another game. It is the Giants versus the Eagles. When these two teams meet it is more about war than it is about football. It is more about raw emotion than talent. Either team could be starting scrubs grabbed off the streets on the morning of game day and the outcome would still be in doubt. That's just the way it is between these two clubs. The way it has always been and always will be.

There could also be another factor at play tomorrow. A tale of two men if you will - each presented with a unique opportunity to define his future destiny.

Tiki Barber has already established his credentials - has already set the Giants record books aflame. But is he a truly great running back? Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? One thing is for sure - he doesn't have many opportunities left to finish making his case.

Tomorrow Tiki Barber has a very unique opportunity - an opportunity unlike any other ever presented to him over the course of his career. Tomorrow, with a non-existent defense and a struggling young quarterback, the game stands squarely on his shoulders - and his alone - against a team that clearly knows whom they must stop. Tomorrow, Tiki Barber has the opportunity in one fell swoop to achieve truly legendary status.

It seems most people would agree that the Giants' offensive line is greatly improved in comparison to the Fassel years. Most people also appear to agree that Jeremy Shockey, Visanthe Shiancoe, and Jim Finn are all excellent blockers. Brandon Jacobs is a bear of a man truly capable of literally punishing defenders. And Tiki Barber - the greatest running back in Giants history. Shouldn't this group be able to dare any team to put 8, even 9, men in the box and still pound them into submission?

The Eagles know they have to stop Tiki Barber. They will key on him and will, indeed, put 8 and 9 men in the box. It shouldn't make any difference. Not with the greatest running back in the Giants 81 year history, still in his prime, running behind a very competent group of blockers. The Giants need to suck it up, accept the Eagles challenge with a shrug of their collective shoulders - like an elephant bothered by a flea - and ram the ball down the Eagles throats.

Of course, the question is not will they - the Giants really have little choice - but can they? Is Tiki Barber good enough to run the ball against a team that has designed its game plan around stopping him? Teams tried to find all kinds of ways to stop Lawrence Taylor. It never worked - LT was simply unstoppable. As were the truly great running backs. You don't think teams were dedicated to stopping Gayle Sayers? Jimmy Brown? Walter Payton? They were great because they were unstoppable. Tomorrow Tiki Barber has a very special opportunity - an opportunity to run the Eagles out of their own stadium - and to run himself into the Hall of Fame.

The second man in this tale of fate is at the opposite end of his career but is facing an opportunity no less momentous to his future - to how he will be judged and remembered - than Tiki Barber. Everyone knows all about the struggles of Eli Manning. He has been questioned by the fans, the media, the analysts - heck, even by my dog groomer's grandmother. Are his struggles mental? A deficiency in talent? Coaching? In the end, it's all irrelevant. Greatness is acquired, not given. Greatness happens because certain people have something deep inside their character that propels them to step up and grab the brass ring when opportunity knocks.

Sure, Eli is struggling. He misses Toomer. The loss of his starting left tackle perhaps has him feeling a bit exposed. But it all doesn't matter. What matters is that this is a special moment in time for Eli Manning - a rare opportunity that only comes along every so often. He is in a unique position exactly because he has been playing so poorly - precisely because there are such low expectations. He has the chance to surprise everyone.

He doesn't need to throw for 350 yards or 5 touchdowns. He just needs to have a workmanlike day. Complete 60 percent of his passes, focus on receivers other than Burress, convert on 3rd and 8 more often than not, and avoid turnovers. And most of all, he needs to play with some confidence and take control of his game. Greatness is all about stepping up during certain moments in time. Often, greatness is seemingly forged out of ashes - by stepping up right at the moment when it is least expected. Does Eli Manning have that something special deep inside that propels him to step up at this moment in time? Will he grab the brass ring tomorrow?

I am not predicting Tiki Barber will run himself into the Hall of Fame tomorrow. Nor has my crystal ball secretly showed me Eli Manning tossing all the doubters from his shoulders with a timely big game. What I do believe, however, is that this is a special moment in time for both Tiki Barber and Eli Manning - both presented with unique opportunities to define their futures. Such moments in time often create forces all their own.