Manning Bowl Countdown

After the mandatory 30 minutes of NBC hype, this much anticipated Giants season will finally get underway tomorrow night. On paper, this is the most talented and balanced Giants team I have ever watched (since 1970). That doesn't mean they are the best (the '86 Giants would bloody this team), but they are legitimate SB contenders for the first time since the 1986-1990 Simms/Taylor era.

However, this first game presents unique challenges for the Giants. If I could pick one team against whom the Giants do not match up well, it would be the Colts. At first blush I thought the way to beat the Colts is to make them one dimensional - totally remove their running game and then let the dogs loose against the pass. However, the Colts know that too and easily game plan against that by establishing the pass first - then run when the Giants are back on their heels. The Colts no-huddle will make it difficult for the Giants to use their special packages to any great advantage and Peyton's tremendous accuracy can make the short - medium passing game almost impossible to defend.

You defeat that type of attack with violence. The safeties have to be punishing. Not once. Not twice. But on every catch. It isn't enough to make a tackle - it has to be a hit that threatens to put the receiver in the hospital every time he makes a catch. And Manning has to be under attack. The short quick release will protect him, but he needs to be made aware the dogs are there - and when he does pump and take a longer look, he has to be hurried and hit hard.

I don't know many (if any) teams capable of doing that to this Colts offense. There is, after all, a reason the Colts went 13-0 last year. This Giants defense is very good and will play many great games this season, but it doesn't have the violent all-pro safeties I believe are needed to make the Colts receivers feel they have entered hell on earth every time the ball is snapped.

So, the Giants have to be the better offense. They don't have to out-shoot the Colts - they just have to out-score them. The Giants, however, are a more ball control type offense than the Colts. That means longer drives that, by definition, are more difficult to sustain to a successful conclusion. This won't be a field position battle. The Giants have to game plan for a scoring battle. The Giants can't run Tiki for the purpose of ball control. They have to run Tiki and Jacobs (I think Brandon may get a fair number of touches) for the purpose of having a balanced attack to out-score the Colts.

The Giants have the talent to do just that. But it won't be enough to just move the ball 60-70 yards only to kick a field goal. Are the Giants ready to improve their efficiency in finishing their drives? That may very well be the key question Sunday night. I think they need 5 touchdowns - not probable, but clearly within their reach.

As the opening game, this game is important because it sets the tone for the season. In that regard, how the team plays is probably more important than the W or L column. This is about momentum going into the season and building confidence. The Giants need to come out of this game with the confidence that they are a great team ready to steam roll any and all comers - whoever is next on their list. The Philly and Seattle games are much more important because they present much better match ups for the Giants and are games they should, and need to, win.

My prediction: Colts 33 Giants 27