Friday, September 15, 2006

Giants at Eagles Preview

Giants - Eagles. What more is there to say? The Giants always have a tough time against the Eagles. But this time the Giants risk going two games behind Philly only two weeks into the season. While their season wouldn't be over, they would have dug a hole so deep they would likely spend the rest of the season trying to climb out. This truly is a must game.

After free-agency and the draft, I convinced myself this Giants team was a legitimate SB contender. Something deep in my gut told me this was a special team at the right moment in time - only the second time I've felt that way during the last 36 years watching the Giants. As I've written here, I believe the Giants are the best team in the league - with great balance in all three phases of the game. On paper.

But you know what? That's crap. If they aren't good enough to win then they are no different than any other lousy team, regardless of the advance billing. If the offense remains inconsistent; continues to sputter; if the defense continues to give up big third down plays; if this team isn't good enough to win then they simply aren't that good. That's just the bottom line.

But, I'm still a believer. I picked Indy to win game one and the Giants to then win the next two at Philly and in Seattle. I still believe that's the way it will play out. So, facing a critical game in only week two - a must win game - if these Giants truly are one of, or the best, team in football, it's time to prove it. I believe the Giants are going to do exactly that.

I've read repeatedly this week that Donovan McNabb has won the last 7 games in a row against the Giants. However, dig a little deeper and we see that in 5 of those 7 games the Giants scored 10 points or less. Those games were less about McNabb than they were about the Eagles defense - or the Giants offense - or both. This is a different Giant's offense - one the Eagles are not going to limit to just 10 points.

As always the Eagles will play a pressure defense - playing all 7 tight to the line and blitzing both the run and pass. The problem with that style defense is that you are going to get burned - it's just a matter of time and persistence. A running back like Tiki Barber is going to break a few between the tackles and be into their secondary before they can bat an eye. I think we'll see a bit less of Brandon Jacobs during the first half than we did last week, but he should be a weapon later in the second half when the Giants need to pound him into a (hopefully) tired Eagle front seven.

The Giants passing game has to stretch the field on the Eagles - not just vertically but sideline to sideline. Tiki will play a large role with screens, dump offs, and draws to slow the rush. However, perhaps as important as Tiki in stretching the field sideline to sideline will be Moss. His quickness and speed is exactly what's needed against this Eagle's defense. I suspect we will see him take the field on game day unless he's simply not healthy enough or doesn't know the playbook well enough to avoid being a liabilty. Shockey will likely have more blocking responsibilities against this defense than he did last week aginst the Colts. However that is not all bad as it opens up opportunities for him to block and release and find some open space.

On defense the Giants have to stop the run. While Westbrook (mini-Tiki) will have a good season and give fits to some teams, I don't see him running wild against the Giants. Stallworth is likley to be the bigger problem as he demonstrated last week. The Giants have to bring the pressure this week to help the secondary out a bit. Everyone talks about how dangerous McNabb is when running, but I think he's more dangerous in the pocket. Sure, he'll make some first downs with his feet but when he's running he's had a history of making some bad throws - and this time when he puts them up the secondary has to catch them.

As I posted after the pre-season and before the Indy game, special teams are a big concern, especially the kickoff and return units. The Giants simply cannot continue letting other teams start at the 30+ while the Giants start behind the 20. Unlike the Indy game, the Eagles presssure defense will stop some drives and this game will be all about field position. The special team units claim they spent extra time watching film this week. How nice. But special teams are all about blood and guts and I would have been more impressed had they said they spent the week crushing stone walls with their heads.

Giants win this game for two reasons.
1. They are the better team.
2. They cannot afford to lose. They should be approaching this game like it is their Super Bowl.

Giants 28 Eagles 22.

Side note: Eagles games are always nasty, physical, affairs and even if they come out of it with no serious injuries the Giants are going to be nicked up going into Seattle next week.

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