Post Draft - May 07, 2006

So, how does reality compare with my pre-draft post?
Pretty good actually. Start with acquisition of Arrington days before the draft (after my prior post) and a 1st round trade down and the Giants in essence get 6 players in the 1st four rounds. Lets do a comparison.

I listed positional needs as OLB(2)-DT-RB-WR-DE-TE and they filled all but RB/TE. My desired first four rounds was OLB-RB-OLB-DT. Including Arrington, the G-Men went OLB-WR-OLB-DT (plus adding 1st round DE and 4th round OT). Pretty damn good draft positionally speaking (at least per my pre-draft desires).

The season is coming when Tiki will lose a step. Selecting DE/WR in the first two rounds - and no RB at all - means the Giants are gambling Tiki has the gas for one more year. If he does, Moss should have an immediate impact. WR instead of TE makes sense now because they need the ability to stretch the field to open the underneath routes and Moss should do that.

Most of all, I like the 1st round selection of Mathias Kiwanuka. I mentioned DE in my pre-draft post because, as I mentioned, the draft has to be approached with a 3-5 year viewpoint and regardless of conditioning Strahan's age means he can only have one, maybe two years left. Having Tuck and Kiwanuka in the wings should leave the Giants set when Strahan leaves.

I think this was a great draft for the Giants positionally speaking (i.e. on paper). It certainly filled the needs I listed. The professional analysts all look at immediate impact but when looking out 3-5 years, this was a great draft. Selecting OT Whimper in the 4th round may pay off 2-3 years from now if it enables them to use the 2008-09 first round pick on something other than OT.

What are my thoughts for the 2006/07 campaign?
The defense should be much stronger later in the upcoming season. The front 7 - the single most important part of any champion team - should be very strong (and awesome in 2-3 years assuming Tuck/Kiwanuka replace Strahan - next year they need to replace Emmons and get a pro bowl cornerback). This year the opposition will have to attack the Giants "up the gut" or at Emmons on the weak side. The Giants' pass rush and special packages should be awesome this year - an attack defense of the type I've always loved - they may not be Taylor-Carson-Banks-Marshall, but Strahan-Osi-Pierce-Arrington-(Tuck-Torbor) should be outrageous. Against this defense, opposing teams will be forced to avoid 2nd/3rd and long, thus putting pressure on 1st down - allowing the Giants to focus against the run on 1st, which should help mask the weaknesses mentioned above. Should be fun to watch, especially later into the season as the special packages mature.

On offense, everything once again depends upon Manning's accuracy. As mentioned last post, I am less interested in last minute heroics than I am in seeing great accuracy, something that simply hasn't been there. The weapons are obviously in place, although I'm still worried about Shockey (still waiting for him to play like his rookie year), Tiki's age, and Burris' emotional strength. Moss should have the most immediate impact of any of the draftees. One year Tiki is going to visibly lose a step - I just hope it isn't this year since his replacement obviously isn't here yet. The good news is that the improved defense should mean greater balance and less pressure on the offense to win games - which will hopefully allow Eli and his cast of stars develop a more efficient and effective short game. If we see consistent sharp crisp 8 yard completions I'll be thrilled.

My post draft/free agency conclusion?
The Giants are a very strong team and much needed balance between offense and defense has been achieved. The problem is they live in a great Division - any of these four teams can win the Division - and the Giants' schedule is hellacious. They are stronger, yet matching last year's 11-5 record has to be considered pure fantasy. The good news is that the Eagles-Cowboys-Redskins all have to play each other too. The Giants may not win the Division - they even may not make the playoffs - but every week this upcoming season should be a war and incredibly fun to watch.