Most players never win one Super Bowl. A rare few are lucky enough to win two or more. But very, very few ever win back to back titles. From the moment the Giants won the Super Bowl last year, I immediately realized how rare it was to win a Super Bowl and thus, how rarer still was the opportunity to win back to back NFL titles. And the Giants have come so incredibly far from then to now - getting down to business enough to become the #1 seed in the entire NFC - and the Vegas favorite to win it all again. The Giants are playing for history.
One thing, however, is certain. It is not going to be easy. Especially today against an Eagles team that is flying high with emotion, energy, and confidence. I see four factors that will determine the outcome of this game and the Giants quest to repeat:
1. The Wind
The weather today calls for blustery winds. Normally I would think that would favor the team that relies more on the run than the pass and thus the Giants over the Eagles. However, I don't think that norm applies to these two teams. I have watched almost every Eagles game over the past five years and Donovan McNabb has one of the strongest arms I've ever seen. He can be leaning backwards on his heels and still throw the football 60 yards with a flick of his wrist. The wind is unlikely to bother McNabb very much forcing the Giants to honor the pass at all times. On the other side of the ball, the wind plays havoc with Eli Manning's game. In fact, if I were playing the Giants the one thing I would pray for would be high winds. To beat the Giants you need to stop Brandon Jacobs. And the only way you stop Brandon Jacobs is to totally abandon defending against the pass - normally a very dangerous proposition when facing Eli Manning. However Eli is horrible when there are blustery winds.
2. Brandon Jacobs
Brandon is the key to the Giants winning today. He has to have success moving the chains and eating the clock. If he does that, the Giants win on both sides of the ball. Brandon Jacobs is thus the key to the success of both the Giants offense and defense. However, see point one above and the impact the wind will have upon the Giants keeping the Eagles honest and giving Brandon some room to move.
3. Recent Trend
Over the first 12 games, the Giants did not allow a single 100 yard rusher. Over the first 12 games the Giants only allowed four touchdown plays of 30 yards or more. All of that totally changed over the last quarter of the season. They allowed a 100 yard rusher in each of the last four games. And during that same four game stretch, the Giants allowed seven touchdowns of 30 or more yards. The Giants have to revert back to their form of the first 3 quarters of the season if they are going to repeat. And they have to start today or they will not get past the Eagles.
4. Pressuring McNabb
In 2007 the Giants sacked McNabb 12 times in one game. This year they have zero sacks in two games. Sacks, of course, are important only to the extent they symbolize pressure. And it is pressure that will stop McNabb. All quarterbacks wither under sever pressure but McNabb even more than most. McNabb is an up and down quarterback and it is critical to be in his face and never allow him to get into any type of rhythm.
Although I don't like this match up, when things are tough and the money is on the line, this Giants team has dug deep and found a way to win. Until proven otherwise, I believe they will continue to play gritty when the chips are down. And that is the factor that should prove to be the difference today. Giants 20, Eagles 13.
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