2008 Pre-Draft Analysis

First, I have been very much aware that my last post was before (the morning of) the Super Bowl. I've not posted simply because I've been unable to think of anything to say that would do justice to what the Giants accomplished. I've been an avid Giants fan for 40 some years and what the Giants did - starting with the last game of the season against NE - defies description. Until I think of something more appropriate, reality can speak for itself.

Now, turning to team needs for 2008 and the draft. What a difference a year (and a Super Bowl) makes. Last year at this time the Giants had multiple needs and it was no coincidence that 17 new faces graced the roster on opening day to start the 2007 season. Despite winning the Super Bowl, the Giants still have needs, but not nearly as many and not nearly as dire as a year ago.

There are two unknowns that will dramatically impact this year's draft. Like last year, whether Michael Strahan retires or plays another year is unknown. That decision has clear implications for Kiwanuka and team needs at linebacker or DE. In addition, this year there is trade talk surrounding Shockey. If he is traded it would create a crying need at TE, regardless of what you think of rookie Kevin Boss. This post presumes both Strahan and Shockey are wearing Giant Blue on opening night against the Redskins.

Offense
On offense, the Giants do not have any truly critical needs. As has been true for several seasons, the offensive line is a team strength and foundation of the entire offense. While depth was a concern heading into the season last year, I thought Whimper played very strong during his periodic appearances last season and must now be considered a solid backup (it wouldn't be at all surprising if Whimper is the starting tackle on opening day with Diehl back at guard). Likewise the Giants are set at running back, quarterback and TE (again, assuming Shockey remains).

The primary position of need on offense continues to be wide receiver. To truly upgrade their offense, the Giants need the ability to field a solid four WR set and they are missing the 4th piece of that puzzle. Furthermore, I have to believe this will be Toomer's final season and so they will need to groom his replacement. They have a great trio in Plax, Toomer and Smith, but they could use a receiver with world class speed (and hands) to stretch the field vertically. However, receivers fitting that definition are going to be a top 10 pick and the Giants aren't drafting high enough to get that kind of receiver this year. I'd still like to see a WR given priority in this draft (i.e. no lower than 3rd round).

Defense
The Giants finished the 2007 regular season ranked 7th in the NFL in team defense. Since 1983 every single Super Bowl winner (except one - Peyton Manning and the Colts) was ranked 8th or better in overall in team defense. That is an amazing statistic and in that regard note that in 2007 the four NFC East teams finished the season ranked 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th in defense in the entire NFL (not surprisingly, the only division in which every team was ranked in the top 10).

Whether this year or next, the Giants are going to have to face life after Strahan. That decision is complicated by Kiwanuka, one of the most natural and god gifted talents at defensive end I've ever seen. Right now the Giants have Strahan, Tuck, Umenyiora, and Tollefson at DE. If Kiwanuka is a permanent fixture at LB, the Giants have a need at DE when Strahan retires. If the plan is for Kiwanuka to move back to DE, then the Giants have a need a LB. I believe Kiwanuka's future is at DE - whether this year or next - and, if so, it makes sense for the Giants to make an investment at linebacker with one of their top (first 3) picks.

Defensive tackle has Robbins, Cofield, Alford, and Rodney Leisle. Of course, with their unique use of defensive ends, Tuck and/or Kiwi become part of the defensive tackle rotation. Having said that, the Giants could still use a run stuffing tackle on defense.

In the secondary, cornerback is not nearly as critical as it appeared heading into last year's draft. Of course much of the reason for that is the fact they used last year's first pick to select Aaron Ross. But Corey Webster is a big reason too. His play in the playoffs, compared to his struggles during the regular season, was a transition that can only be described as phenomenal. Football is all about confidence and that is nowhere more true than at the cornerback position. Nobody knows whether Webster's new found confidence will continue into the future, but clearly corner does not present the crying need that the Giants faced heading into last year's draft. The Giants still need to draft corners, but it would not be surprising if they didn't select one until the later rounds (after round 3).

Safety is a totally different story. Wilson is gone in free agency leaving the Giants with James Butler, last year's rookie Michael Johnson, this year's free agent pickup Sammy Knight, and Andrew Shanle (and I have no idea who he is). Despite all the pop culture about the importance of corners in today's pass happy NFL, I've always been a believer - and continue to believe - that you win championships with great defenses that stop the run first and foremost, and stop the passing game by rushing the passer. In other words, aggressive intimidating football. In such a system, I would much rather have two hard hitting - bone jarring - head hunting safeties than two top corners (if I had to choose). Safety is probably the weakest position on the team (although I am still very unhappy about the unsettled state at linebacker) - and will presumably be a priority during this year's draft.

Strictly from a positional standpoint, I'd like to see the Giants make the following selections:
1. S or LB
2. S or LB
3. WR
4. DT
5. OL
6a. WR
6b. DB
6c. DB