Last week the Giants put together an emotional win over the Redskins. The defense stood tall all day, especially when it mattered, stopping Washington four straight times on a first and goal at the 1 with only 58 seconds remaining in the game. Washington, 2-0 heading into the game, was leading 17-3 at the half. Those were the only points they would score all day. The Giants limited the Redskins to 80 total yards and zero points in the second half.
Eli Manning (21-36, 232) and the offense got their act together at the same time, converting seven straight third down conversions and three touchdowns to seal a 24-17 win on the road. Ward, 26 for 94 yards against Washington, has rushed for 273 yards on 54 carries in three games and sports a gaudy 5.1 average. It's no wonder Brandon Jacobs had some sort of miracle recovery and returned to full practice by the end of this week.
I've felt badly for Brandon. After enduring all the off season talk - and questions - about his potential, to go down in the 2nd series of the very first game had to be very difficult to swallow. And while Ward's success has been a great thing for the team, it can't be easy watching someone else standing in what was supposed to be your limelight. But Jacobs is a far too valuable asset to risk just because he's itching to get back on the field. If Brandon is the real deal - and I think he is - he'll get plenty of opportunities to showcase his talent once that knee is fully healed.
Tonight the 1-2 Eagles come to town, fresh off a 56-21 thrashing of Detroit. McNabb (21-26, 381) had a near perfect game. Amazingly, despite the powerhouse offense that put up those 56 points, it was probably the Eagles defense that had the more impressive performance, shutting out the Lions in the second half while recording 9 sacks. The strength of the Eagles defense is the defensive line and DT Brodrick Bunkley is a monster who will likely give the interior of the Giants line fits. That means Diehl will probably get very little help handling Cole. This will be a major test for the Giants offensive line and the Giants will need have success in the running game to keep the Eagles pass rushers a bit off balance if the Giants hope to have any chance keeping Eli upright.
Even if the offense holds up its end of the bargain, the game is likely to be won or lost by the kind of pressure the Giants can bring to bear on McNabb. To protect a weak secondary (although I would note that Madison fared pretty darn well back there last week), the Giants must find a way to get into McNabb's face all day long. That's no easy task when your linebackers are struggling protecting against the quick hits over the middle, especially to the TE (although the Eagles Smith is supposedly out for tonight's game). The pass rush can't work if the linebackers consistently give the QB "quick freebies" before the rush can get there. Whether the Giants can mount consistent pressure on McNabb will, in my opinion, be the final determining factor in the outcome.
Winning those match ups, however, is likely to be decided, not on talent, but on pure will power. This is an Eagles-Giants game and talent on either side of the ball means far less than the will to win. I've always believed that football, more than most sports, is less about the physical skills and talents of individual players and more about heart, inner competitive spirit, and an overriding will to win. Organizations with the uncanny ability to see who a person is on the inside and find ways to stock their roster with those types of competitors, routinely knock the socks off teams filled with more individual talent. It is that extra something that can't be seen - is difficult to define - but is critically important in the creation of a true team.
It's too early to yet know what kind of team the Giants have this year - but one of the two teams meeting tonight will be 1-3 by tomorrow morning and may never get the chance to ever know.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Saturday, September 22, 2007
The Future Is Now
I didn't think things could get worse after the horrible performance in the season opener, but they did. With the early struggles (putting it mildly) of the defense, a Giants victory last Sunday against Green Bay was clearly on the shoulders of the offense. However, in the home opener, Giants fans were graced with a 13 point performance by this offensive juggernaut. One touchdown and two field goals all day long. Special teams joined the fun with a fumbled return and a botched field goal snap.
After two games the Giants are dead last in the league in points allowed. This Giants defense has allowed 80 points in the first two games, the worst start in over 40 years - second worst in team history. Opponents are converting third downs at an unheard of rate of 54.5 percent. And things don't get easier this week. The Redskins offense is ranked 4th in the league converting on third down (and their defense is ranked 1st by the way).
The Giants defense needs a spark - a jump start. It desperately needs some enthusiasm that gets the entire unit pumped up. I believe they need to get their future on the field now. Madison, McQuarters and Mitchell are known quantities with very little upside at this point in their careers. The Giants need to develop an accelerated plan to get Ross, Webster, Johnson, Wilkinson, DeOssie, and Blackburn on the field more and more. For now I would immediately replace McQuarters with Ross. I would move Kiwi back to DE where he belongs, bench Mitchell, and play Wilkinson, DeOssie and/or Blackburn as the outside backers.
Here is my bottom line. No veteran player should be starting unless the quality of his play demands it. McQuarters cannot start over Aaron Ross unless his play is far superior. The same goes for Mitchell contrasted with Wilkinson/Blackburn. Madison versus Webster. And I'd move Kiwi back to DE, sit Strahan until his play forces himself back onto the field, and get another younger LB onto the field.
It may not make things better in the short term. But it will make the Giants team stronger in the long run. It will also prove invaluable in evaluating their future needs. And it just may provide the emotional spark this team so desperately needs right now. Lastly, as a fan, if the team is going to lose, at least let me have the opportunity of getting excited by watching the Giants younger players - the Giants future - on the field and making some plays.
After two games the Giants are dead last in the league in points allowed. This Giants defense has allowed 80 points in the first two games, the worst start in over 40 years - second worst in team history. Opponents are converting third downs at an unheard of rate of 54.5 percent. And things don't get easier this week. The Redskins offense is ranked 4th in the league converting on third down (and their defense is ranked 1st by the way).
The Giants defense needs a spark - a jump start. It desperately needs some enthusiasm that gets the entire unit pumped up. I believe they need to get their future on the field now. Madison, McQuarters and Mitchell are known quantities with very little upside at this point in their careers. The Giants need to develop an accelerated plan to get Ross, Webster, Johnson, Wilkinson, DeOssie, and Blackburn on the field more and more. For now I would immediately replace McQuarters with Ross. I would move Kiwi back to DE where he belongs, bench Mitchell, and play Wilkinson, DeOssie and/or Blackburn as the outside backers.
Here is my bottom line. No veteran player should be starting unless the quality of his play demands it. McQuarters cannot start over Aaron Ross unless his play is far superior. The same goes for Mitchell contrasted with Wilkinson/Blackburn. Madison versus Webster. And I'd move Kiwi back to DE, sit Strahan until his play forces himself back onto the field, and get another younger LB onto the field.
It may not make things better in the short term. But it will make the Giants team stronger in the long run. It will also prove invaluable in evaluating their future needs. And it just may provide the emotional spark this team so desperately needs right now. Lastly, as a fan, if the team is going to lose, at least let me have the opportunity of getting excited by watching the Giants younger players - the Giants future - on the field and making some plays.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Death of a Franchise
The Giants traveled to Dallas Sunday night, scored 35 points, and lost. This team has been built around offense. And a good offense it is - an offense dominant enough to put up 35 points on the road against a divisional rival. But it is also a team with a defense that has been ignored - has been the step child of the offense - for far too long. A defense pathetic enough to give up 45 points in a big game against a divisional rival.
Such state of affairs is heart wrenching, especially to an old timer like myself whose first live Giants game dates back to Yankee Stadium. I never thought I'd live to see the day that the Giants organization would turn its back on its own heritage. Through thick and thin, good times and bad, Giants football has always been about defense. Defense came first, front and center, before anything else. Defense has always been the core, the focus, and ultimately the heritage and tradition of this proud franchise. That focus - that defense before anything else mentality - has been lost for quite some time now and the defense has slowly withered and become frail, faltering and hesitant over the past few years. And finally, like a terminal illness, Sunday night brought the sad realization that the proud heritage of this franchise has passed on.
I've been a Giants fan all my life. That won't change because I don't consider it a choice. It just is. But I'm not happy. High powered offensive football - teams that put the emphasis upon offense over defense resided in the AFL/AFC. The NFL/NFC was all about toughness. About mud and guts and lost teeth. The "offense first" teams were for the girls and women - it was entertaining and exciting and put new fans in the seats. But real football - what the men watch - where the gladiators play - has always been the province of the NFC. Today everything has been turned upside down. Tough defensive football is the province of the AFC and my four daughters are suddenly interested watching Eli Manning and the Giants.
I'm not saying what we witnessed Sunday night is what we see all year long. It won't be. The defense will get better - but that's not saying much. I don't see how it can play much worse. But I will not be happy so long as Giants football is more about offense than defense. As far as I am concerned, if you like offensive football, go join the girls in the other room and root for the Colts or the Jets but leave us men - and the Giants - alone.
The current Giants ownership and management should be ashamed. As the guardians of this franchise, they have sullied and damaged its one true tradition. They've broken faith with their own heritage and legacy. I've always enjoyed watching the "fancy boys" and their high powered offenses but for me they were always side shows - warm ups - to the real blood and guts football played by men - by gladiators - by the Giants. I suppose I should be happy that my daughters now show a passing interest in my football team but frankly it just rubs salt in the wound.
Such state of affairs is heart wrenching, especially to an old timer like myself whose first live Giants game dates back to Yankee Stadium. I never thought I'd live to see the day that the Giants organization would turn its back on its own heritage. Through thick and thin, good times and bad, Giants football has always been about defense. Defense came first, front and center, before anything else. Defense has always been the core, the focus, and ultimately the heritage and tradition of this proud franchise. That focus - that defense before anything else mentality - has been lost for quite some time now and the defense has slowly withered and become frail, faltering and hesitant over the past few years. And finally, like a terminal illness, Sunday night brought the sad realization that the proud heritage of this franchise has passed on.
I've been a Giants fan all my life. That won't change because I don't consider it a choice. It just is. But I'm not happy. High powered offensive football - teams that put the emphasis upon offense over defense resided in the AFL/AFC. The NFL/NFC was all about toughness. About mud and guts and lost teeth. The "offense first" teams were for the girls and women - it was entertaining and exciting and put new fans in the seats. But real football - what the men watch - where the gladiators play - has always been the province of the NFC. Today everything has been turned upside down. Tough defensive football is the province of the AFC and my four daughters are suddenly interested watching Eli Manning and the Giants.
I'm not saying what we witnessed Sunday night is what we see all year long. It won't be. The defense will get better - but that's not saying much. I don't see how it can play much worse. But I will not be happy so long as Giants football is more about offense than defense. As far as I am concerned, if you like offensive football, go join the girls in the other room and root for the Colts or the Jets but leave us men - and the Giants - alone.
The current Giants ownership and management should be ashamed. As the guardians of this franchise, they have sullied and damaged its one true tradition. They've broken faith with their own heritage and legacy. I've always enjoyed watching the "fancy boys" and their high powered offenses but for me they were always side shows - warm ups - to the real blood and guts football played by men - by gladiators - by the Giants. I suppose I should be happy that my daughters now show a passing interest in my football team but frankly it just rubs salt in the wound.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Giants Head To Dallas For 2007 Season Opener
I absolutely hate to pick against the Giants for the season opener - and I especially hate picking them to lose to the Cowboys. At least it's an away game. Here is how I see the match ups.
When Dallas Has the Ball
Dallas has one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. They should, they've invested a ton of money. I only saw them once this pre-season but it was enough to see that Leonard Davis is going to be a force at right guard and totally dominating in the run game. Look for the Giants to have trouble stopping Marion Barber up the middle. I also expect Dallas to use plenty of screens and cutbacks with Julius Jones to keep the Giants new aggressive scheme off balance. Lastly, Giants fans can't be happy thinking about defending three time pro-bowler Witten and Terrell Owens with a still learning Kiwanuka and a weak secondary. The loss of Terry Glenn is big, although Giants will have their hands full dealing with TO and Witten, so look for Crayton to have a big game. This will be a major test for the Giants and they are going to have to get to Romo early and often to have any hope of stopping a very solid Dallas offense. Again, my primary concern is Leonard Davis and the rest of the OL mauling the Giants up the middle.
When the Giants Have the Ball
Dallas has invested heavily on defense in recent drafts but still have some question marks. On the defensive line Chris Canty and DeMarcus Spears represent lots of unfulfilled potential, especially Canty. But the key to Dallas, as in any 3-4, is their linebackers. I'm a bit surprised that Bobby Carpenter hasn't broken the starting lineup. In the end, however, the linebackers are all about DeMarcus Ware. Phillips intends to really turn Ware loose this year, letting him roam free ala Lawrence Taylor. O'Hara is going to have his hands full setting the offensive line's assignments. However the big key for Dallas is the health of Greg Ellis and his absence will enable the Giants to put greater focus on finding - and double teaming - Ware.
Although Giants fans are understandably excited about their new pressure defense, expect the Cowboys to "out-Spags" Spagnuolo when it comes to bringing the pressure on Sunday. And, between the two teams, the Cowboys have the better secondary to accomplish that. One of keys to the Cowboys game plan is likely to be to jump the gaps and make Jacobs dance a bit in the backfield before he can get a head of steam. Against the pass they will stunt, blitz, and move Ware around - all designed to keep Canty and Ware in Manning's face all night long. From the Giants perspective the game is likely to hinge on the protection holding up sufficiently to allow Manning to be the hero of the game with Shockey having a big day.
Prediction
In the end, I think the acquisition of Leonard Davis makes the difference for the Boys in this game. I'm afraid the Giants lose the battle of the trenches on defense against the running game. Not necessarily badly and not necessarily all night long, but enough for the Cowboys to keep the chains moving and the Giants off balance. I don't see Jacobs having a big game and he is likely to struggle getting up any head of steam as the Cowboys force the ball into Manning's hand. The danger for the Cowboys is that could end up being a huge miscalculation. Manning looks like a completely different QB this year. He is making crisp, strong, confident throws without any of the erratic off the charts passes of the past. I've not been happy with his play since the day he got here, but I love what I've been seeing this year and if he keeps his mechanics solid all year long, he could easily find himself in Hawaii next February. And I think he will have a good game Sunday night, but with the running game bottled up, the Giants fall short.
Dallas 31, Giants 20
When Dallas Has the Ball
Dallas has one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. They should, they've invested a ton of money. I only saw them once this pre-season but it was enough to see that Leonard Davis is going to be a force at right guard and totally dominating in the run game. Look for the Giants to have trouble stopping Marion Barber up the middle. I also expect Dallas to use plenty of screens and cutbacks with Julius Jones to keep the Giants new aggressive scheme off balance. Lastly, Giants fans can't be happy thinking about defending three time pro-bowler Witten and Terrell Owens with a still learning Kiwanuka and a weak secondary. The loss of Terry Glenn is big, although Giants will have their hands full dealing with TO and Witten, so look for Crayton to have a big game. This will be a major test for the Giants and they are going to have to get to Romo early and often to have any hope of stopping a very solid Dallas offense. Again, my primary concern is Leonard Davis and the rest of the OL mauling the Giants up the middle.
When the Giants Have the Ball
Dallas has invested heavily on defense in recent drafts but still have some question marks. On the defensive line Chris Canty and DeMarcus Spears represent lots of unfulfilled potential, especially Canty. But the key to Dallas, as in any 3-4, is their linebackers. I'm a bit surprised that Bobby Carpenter hasn't broken the starting lineup. In the end, however, the linebackers are all about DeMarcus Ware. Phillips intends to really turn Ware loose this year, letting him roam free ala Lawrence Taylor. O'Hara is going to have his hands full setting the offensive line's assignments. However the big key for Dallas is the health of Greg Ellis and his absence will enable the Giants to put greater focus on finding - and double teaming - Ware.
Although Giants fans are understandably excited about their new pressure defense, expect the Cowboys to "out-Spags" Spagnuolo when it comes to bringing the pressure on Sunday. And, between the two teams, the Cowboys have the better secondary to accomplish that. One of keys to the Cowboys game plan is likely to be to jump the gaps and make Jacobs dance a bit in the backfield before he can get a head of steam. Against the pass they will stunt, blitz, and move Ware around - all designed to keep Canty and Ware in Manning's face all night long. From the Giants perspective the game is likely to hinge on the protection holding up sufficiently to allow Manning to be the hero of the game with Shockey having a big day.
Prediction
In the end, I think the acquisition of Leonard Davis makes the difference for the Boys in this game. I'm afraid the Giants lose the battle of the trenches on defense against the running game. Not necessarily badly and not necessarily all night long, but enough for the Cowboys to keep the chains moving and the Giants off balance. I don't see Jacobs having a big game and he is likely to struggle getting up any head of steam as the Cowboys force the ball into Manning's hand. The danger for the Cowboys is that could end up being a huge miscalculation. Manning looks like a completely different QB this year. He is making crisp, strong, confident throws without any of the erratic off the charts passes of the past. I've not been happy with his play since the day he got here, but I love what I've been seeing this year and if he keeps his mechanics solid all year long, he could easily find himself in Hawaii next February. And I think he will have a good game Sunday night, but with the running game bottled up, the Giants fall short.
Dallas 31, Giants 20
Monday, September 03, 2007
State of the 2007 NY Giants As Season Begins
Is this a rebuilding year? Many people react emotionally to that phrase and since I can't find a good definition, I won't use it. However, whatever you want to call it, one thing is clear - there has been lots of change. Last year's defensive and offensive coordinators are both gone. So is the special teams coach. There is a new QB coach. The most productive running back in team history has retired. And seventeen new faces grace this year's roster.
On Offense
QB - Nobody agrees with me, but I will forever believe that despite Montana's better statistics, Phil Simms was the better quarterback. That's a judgment I made with my eyes, not reading press clippings or the stats sheet.
My eyes haven't made me very happy with what I've seen of Eli Mannning through 2006. His statistics haven't mattered to me nor will they be of much interest to me in the future. And that future seems incredibly bright. I've seen a critical transformation in how Eli Manning is throwing the ball this year. His footwork is noticeably improved. He is stepping into his throws. His release is sharp and his passes crisp. He is throwing the ball with confidence, even the misses. Most importantly there has been a complete absence of wild erratic throws. Not even one wild throw so far this year. I'm not talking incompletions nor am I talking about passes slightly off target. I am talking the equivalent of a wild pitch in baseball - something I believe may very well be a permanent remnant of Manning's past.
While it is obviously very early - and conservative observers will caution against jumping to conclusions, noting the first half/second half disparities in his play over the past two seasons - I believe we are witnessing a totally different quarterback. Yes, his mechanics got worse when the team struggled over the past two seasons - but the emphasis is "got worse" because his mechanics weren't solid to begin with. I have great optimism that there has been a transformation in his throwing mechanics and that Eli Manning will end 2007 as the most valuable player on offense and will compete for a pro bowl this year and many years to come.
WR - On paper this should be a strength. Giants used high (2nd round) first day picks the past two years to add WR depth. Amani Toomer appears to be healthy. If Toomer and Burress stay healthy all year this unit can be special primarily because of the addition of Steve Smith. I think Smith is a natural football player. He may not be the fastest - or the quickest - or the tallest - but he has great football instincts. He gets open and holds onto the ball.
Yet, I'm worried. Granted, I tend to worry a lot and "project" all sorts of calamities around this time of year. But I cringe when I hear Burress and "back problems" in the same sentence. Back problems tend to be chronic and are not a good thing for anyone, but especially so for someone as tall and lanky as Burress. And while this is one of the best receiving corps in Giants history, there isn't a solid replacement for Burress. The loss of any starter hurts, but the dropoff of losing Burress would be steep. I'm confident Smith would hold his own if Toomer went down this year. Moss looks like a specialty player but not a permanent starter. And while Anthony Mix "flashed brilliant" during the 2007 pre-season and he is a great 6th WR, he isn't ready to replace Plax. So I'm just a tad worried about that back issue.
TE - I have said repeatedly in the past that Shockey has unique skills that have been completely misused in the past. The entire passing attack should have been completely designed around Shockey these past few years. Instead all too often he was used to block and as a secondary outlet for short gains. That was a huge mistake. Unfortunately Shiancoe is gone and now the Giants may have no choice but to use Shockey as the blocking TE. Matthews has looked good but he is a rookie and it is going to take time for him to even approach Shiancoe's blocking ability. And Matthews looks better than Boss both blocking and receiving. I look for the Giants to use Whimper in the blocking TE role but any way you slice or dice it, Shockey's role is going to be impacted by the loss of Shiancoe. While I look for Shockey's yard per catch to go up this year, at the end of the day I'm afraid I'll be left still yearning for the player I saw in his rookie year.
RB - Like all Giants fans, I fell in love with Brandon Jacobs the day I read the rave reviews coming out of that first rookie camp shortly after the draft. But as I've said before, I think the expectations being placed on this young man by the Giants faithful are totally unrealistic. The past two seasons we got to see Brandon Jacobs run free and run wild. Fans need to understand that is unlikely to happen with nearly as much frequency in 2007. This year the world's most brillant defensive minds are going to spend considerable time and effort devising game plans designed to stop Brandon Jacobs. You are likely to see lots of three and four yard runs through very heavy traffic instead of the "beast" wrecking havoc in the secondary.
Two caveats. First and foremost is Eli Manning. If he has the break out year I think he will, that is likely to force teams to back off efforts to load the box, which hopefully gives Brandon some additional breathing room. Secondly, those "3-4 yards and a cloud of dust" runs, coming from a big bruising man like Brandon Jacobs, are likely to wear defenses down late in the late 3rd and 4th quarters. At least that's the theory. But will Jacobs be worn down too? Only time will tell.
Many believe the Giants have depth at running back. I'm not one of them. For 2007 the success of the running game, in the end, will be on the shoulders of Brandon Jacobs. Yes, cut downs were difficult. Yes, I like what I see in Ward and Bradshaw is going to contribute. But they add versatility, not depth. If Jacobs goes down, the likely replacement would be Ward (assuming he can block), not Droughns. While Droughns is an upgrade over Carter, his role will be to give Jacobs a breather. While not as bad as the total absence of depth at QB, I believe a successful season depends as much upon Jacobs' health as Eli's.
FB - Not much to say. Douglas is hurt and may not survive the last cut due later today. Giants have practiced with Droughns but he reportedly isn't in love with the move. Matthews may see some time there but in the end the Giants are likely to scrap some of their playbook.
OL - I was against the release of Petitgout and still am. It is not because David Diehl won't do a credible job. He always has and he will now. Rather it is depth that concerned me then and concerns me now. The health of the offensive line is absolutely critical because there aren't any backups. David Diehl at guard and Richie Seubert on the bench, provided great solace to Giant fans everywhere. That no longer exists and the first time an offensive lineman is slow to get up the entire NY metropolitan area is going to hold its collective breath. This should be a very strong unit provided there is not a single injury across the entire line the entire year.
On Defense
DL - The starting defensive line is one of the strongest units of the team. It will be several games before Strahan is in top form and his holdout hurt the team in that regard. And it isn't clear how he is affected by the Lis Franc injury or his advancing age. But Justin Tuck seems ready to take up where he left off at the end of 2005. And Osi, Robbins, and Cofield make a strong unit with my only hesitation being how stout they play the run up the gut. There is considerable drop off after those 5 as evidenced by the continued presence of William Josephs.
LB - Pierce is going to struggle if he doesn't get more help up front from the defensive tackles. He should benefit by the upgrade in speed of Mitchell and Kiwanuka over Arrington and Emmons but that is probably counter balanced by the steep learning curve Kiwanuka is likely to experience.
I was not happy about the Kiwanuka move because I subscribe to the theory that you move a player who otherwise isn't likely to make it at the pro level at his given position. You don't move a probable future pro bowler. You find some other way to make adjustments. Having said that Kiwanuka has an incredible combination of athleticism, size and speed and should excel given time. Lots of time. As in years. That's not to say he won't be a good linebacker at any point this year. But he isn't likely to demonstrate the same level at LB that he showed at DE for at least another full year, maybe two.
Secondary - The Giants believe their future is Webster and Ross. However they didn't keep Madison and McQuarters for backup roles. I think that's a mistake. Ross is very raw with much to learn and Madison, even at this point in his career, is clearly the more accomplished player. However, Ross has a much higher upside than Madison or McQuarters and if this year's goal is to win the Super Bowl, then you bite the bullet early on and throw the kid into the water and let him learn how to swim. Of course the risk you take is that the learning curve may be so great you lose too many games and don't make the playoffs at all. But making the playoffs cannot - and should not - be the end goal. The Giants should be focused on winning the Super Bowl and an experienced Ross and Webster can get them there. Madison and McQuarters can't.
I think the Giants are even worse off at safety. Wilson and Butler have both shown glimpses of potential in the past but no day in and day out consistency. That is why I was so surprised at the release of Demps. The failure to upgrade the safety position is going to hurt in the defensive standings, especially against the run.
Special Teams
New kicker. And new long snapper. Let's hope the Giants don't play any close games.
Conclusion
New offensive and defensive coordinators. New special teams and quarterbacks coaches. No fullback or blocking tight end. Depth on offensive line gone completely. Most productive running back and receiver in team history gone. Linebacker receiving on the job training. No upgrades at all to perhaps the weakest starting secondary in the entire NFL. New kicker and snapper.
I think Eli Manning is on the brink of a great season but even so he can't do it alone. Hope springs eternal, but there are simply too many question marks to objectively conclude this team is stronger heading into 2007 than it was in heading into 2006. I think they will be stronger in 2008 than they were in 2006, but not in 2007. But remember, this isn't a rebuilding year.
Prediction
Philadelphia wins Division (yet again). Dallas second and gets wild card. Giants third with a 9-7 record and in the hunt for the second wild card.
On Offense
QB - Nobody agrees with me, but I will forever believe that despite Montana's better statistics, Phil Simms was the better quarterback. That's a judgment I made with my eyes, not reading press clippings or the stats sheet.
My eyes haven't made me very happy with what I've seen of Eli Mannning through 2006. His statistics haven't mattered to me nor will they be of much interest to me in the future. And that future seems incredibly bright. I've seen a critical transformation in how Eli Manning is throwing the ball this year. His footwork is noticeably improved. He is stepping into his throws. His release is sharp and his passes crisp. He is throwing the ball with confidence, even the misses. Most importantly there has been a complete absence of wild erratic throws. Not even one wild throw so far this year. I'm not talking incompletions nor am I talking about passes slightly off target. I am talking the equivalent of a wild pitch in baseball - something I believe may very well be a permanent remnant of Manning's past.
While it is obviously very early - and conservative observers will caution against jumping to conclusions, noting the first half/second half disparities in his play over the past two seasons - I believe we are witnessing a totally different quarterback. Yes, his mechanics got worse when the team struggled over the past two seasons - but the emphasis is "got worse" because his mechanics weren't solid to begin with. I have great optimism that there has been a transformation in his throwing mechanics and that Eli Manning will end 2007 as the most valuable player on offense and will compete for a pro bowl this year and many years to come.
WR - On paper this should be a strength. Giants used high (2nd round) first day picks the past two years to add WR depth. Amani Toomer appears to be healthy. If Toomer and Burress stay healthy all year this unit can be special primarily because of the addition of Steve Smith. I think Smith is a natural football player. He may not be the fastest - or the quickest - or the tallest - but he has great football instincts. He gets open and holds onto the ball.
Yet, I'm worried. Granted, I tend to worry a lot and "project" all sorts of calamities around this time of year. But I cringe when I hear Burress and "back problems" in the same sentence. Back problems tend to be chronic and are not a good thing for anyone, but especially so for someone as tall and lanky as Burress. And while this is one of the best receiving corps in Giants history, there isn't a solid replacement for Burress. The loss of any starter hurts, but the dropoff of losing Burress would be steep. I'm confident Smith would hold his own if Toomer went down this year. Moss looks like a specialty player but not a permanent starter. And while Anthony Mix "flashed brilliant" during the 2007 pre-season and he is a great 6th WR, he isn't ready to replace Plax. So I'm just a tad worried about that back issue.
TE - I have said repeatedly in the past that Shockey has unique skills that have been completely misused in the past. The entire passing attack should have been completely designed around Shockey these past few years. Instead all too often he was used to block and as a secondary outlet for short gains. That was a huge mistake. Unfortunately Shiancoe is gone and now the Giants may have no choice but to use Shockey as the blocking TE. Matthews has looked good but he is a rookie and it is going to take time for him to even approach Shiancoe's blocking ability. And Matthews looks better than Boss both blocking and receiving. I look for the Giants to use Whimper in the blocking TE role but any way you slice or dice it, Shockey's role is going to be impacted by the loss of Shiancoe. While I look for Shockey's yard per catch to go up this year, at the end of the day I'm afraid I'll be left still yearning for the player I saw in his rookie year.
RB - Like all Giants fans, I fell in love with Brandon Jacobs the day I read the rave reviews coming out of that first rookie camp shortly after the draft. But as I've said before, I think the expectations being placed on this young man by the Giants faithful are totally unrealistic. The past two seasons we got to see Brandon Jacobs run free and run wild. Fans need to understand that is unlikely to happen with nearly as much frequency in 2007. This year the world's most brillant defensive minds are going to spend considerable time and effort devising game plans designed to stop Brandon Jacobs. You are likely to see lots of three and four yard runs through very heavy traffic instead of the "beast" wrecking havoc in the secondary.
Two caveats. First and foremost is Eli Manning. If he has the break out year I think he will, that is likely to force teams to back off efforts to load the box, which hopefully gives Brandon some additional breathing room. Secondly, those "3-4 yards and a cloud of dust" runs, coming from a big bruising man like Brandon Jacobs, are likely to wear defenses down late in the late 3rd and 4th quarters. At least that's the theory. But will Jacobs be worn down too? Only time will tell.
Many believe the Giants have depth at running back. I'm not one of them. For 2007 the success of the running game, in the end, will be on the shoulders of Brandon Jacobs. Yes, cut downs were difficult. Yes, I like what I see in Ward and Bradshaw is going to contribute. But they add versatility, not depth. If Jacobs goes down, the likely replacement would be Ward (assuming he can block), not Droughns. While Droughns is an upgrade over Carter, his role will be to give Jacobs a breather. While not as bad as the total absence of depth at QB, I believe a successful season depends as much upon Jacobs' health as Eli's.
FB - Not much to say. Douglas is hurt and may not survive the last cut due later today. Giants have practiced with Droughns but he reportedly isn't in love with the move. Matthews may see some time there but in the end the Giants are likely to scrap some of their playbook.
OL - I was against the release of Petitgout and still am. It is not because David Diehl won't do a credible job. He always has and he will now. Rather it is depth that concerned me then and concerns me now. The health of the offensive line is absolutely critical because there aren't any backups. David Diehl at guard and Richie Seubert on the bench, provided great solace to Giant fans everywhere. That no longer exists and the first time an offensive lineman is slow to get up the entire NY metropolitan area is going to hold its collective breath. This should be a very strong unit provided there is not a single injury across the entire line the entire year.
On Defense
DL - The starting defensive line is one of the strongest units of the team. It will be several games before Strahan is in top form and his holdout hurt the team in that regard. And it isn't clear how he is affected by the Lis Franc injury or his advancing age. But Justin Tuck seems ready to take up where he left off at the end of 2005. And Osi, Robbins, and Cofield make a strong unit with my only hesitation being how stout they play the run up the gut. There is considerable drop off after those 5 as evidenced by the continued presence of William Josephs.
LB - Pierce is going to struggle if he doesn't get more help up front from the defensive tackles. He should benefit by the upgrade in speed of Mitchell and Kiwanuka over Arrington and Emmons but that is probably counter balanced by the steep learning curve Kiwanuka is likely to experience.
I was not happy about the Kiwanuka move because I subscribe to the theory that you move a player who otherwise isn't likely to make it at the pro level at his given position. You don't move a probable future pro bowler. You find some other way to make adjustments. Having said that Kiwanuka has an incredible combination of athleticism, size and speed and should excel given time. Lots of time. As in years. That's not to say he won't be a good linebacker at any point this year. But he isn't likely to demonstrate the same level at LB that he showed at DE for at least another full year, maybe two.
Secondary - The Giants believe their future is Webster and Ross. However they didn't keep Madison and McQuarters for backup roles. I think that's a mistake. Ross is very raw with much to learn and Madison, even at this point in his career, is clearly the more accomplished player. However, Ross has a much higher upside than Madison or McQuarters and if this year's goal is to win the Super Bowl, then you bite the bullet early on and throw the kid into the water and let him learn how to swim. Of course the risk you take is that the learning curve may be so great you lose too many games and don't make the playoffs at all. But making the playoffs cannot - and should not - be the end goal. The Giants should be focused on winning the Super Bowl and an experienced Ross and Webster can get them there. Madison and McQuarters can't.
I think the Giants are even worse off at safety. Wilson and Butler have both shown glimpses of potential in the past but no day in and day out consistency. That is why I was so surprised at the release of Demps. The failure to upgrade the safety position is going to hurt in the defensive standings, especially against the run.
Special Teams
New kicker. And new long snapper. Let's hope the Giants don't play any close games.
Conclusion
New offensive and defensive coordinators. New special teams and quarterbacks coaches. No fullback or blocking tight end. Depth on offensive line gone completely. Most productive running back and receiver in team history gone. Linebacker receiving on the job training. No upgrades at all to perhaps the weakest starting secondary in the entire NFL. New kicker and snapper.
I think Eli Manning is on the brink of a great season but even so he can't do it alone. Hope springs eternal, but there are simply too many question marks to objectively conclude this team is stronger heading into 2007 than it was in heading into 2006. I think they will be stronger in 2008 than they were in 2006, but not in 2007. But remember, this isn't a rebuilding year.
Prediction
Philadelphia wins Division (yet again). Dallas second and gets wild card. Giants third with a 9-7 record and in the hunt for the second wild card.
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