2007 Pre-Draft Analysis

The 2007 draft finally arrives on Saturday. Much has happened since my last post back on Jan 15th when I put my thoughts regarding needs down on paper while the 2006 season was still very fresh in my mind (before the 2006 Conference Championship games were played). Although I predicted Arrington, Emmons and Whitfield would not be returning, never in my wildest imagination did I think Luke Petitgout would be released. And while I was concerned the Giants might lose Shiancoe, the loss of Feely simply never crossed my mind. Of course this was all in addition to the retirement of Tiki Barber.

Offsetting those losses, the Giants signed LB Kawika Mitchell, DT Marcus Bell, QB Anthony Wright, and defensive back Michael Stone (almost certainly for special teams). And perhaps the most important addition was RB Reuben Droughns, obtained from Cleveland in a straight up exchange for Tim Carter.

These roster changes leave the Giants with some definite needs heading into next week's draft:

Offensive Line
The loss of both Petitgout and Whitfield leaves a huge question mark at offensive tackle. In theory it would appear the Giants have three possible options:

1. Guy Whimper
Guy Whimper, a 4th round "project" selection in last year's draft has the size and athleticism to be a first rate NFL tackle but he almost certainly needs another year before being ready to compete for a starting job. He must be considered a long shot to be starting in September.

2. 2007 Rookie
It would be foolish to plan on finding a left offensive tackle in the draft, no less to expect the good fortune to draft one sufficiently talented to protect your franchise QB starting in September. Besides, if the Giants have seen enough to be convinced Guy Whimper is their left offensive tackle of the future, offensive line is unlikely to be a day one priority.

3. David Diehl
This is really the only true viable solution and almost certainly the lineup we will see in September absent some surprise trade or out-of-the blue performance by Whimper or a rookie during camp.

Wide Receiver
The loss of Toomer in 2006 opened some eyes. When Toomer went down Eli immediately struggled and the Giants offense totally tanked. I believe Amani Toomer was having his best season ever last year before he was hurt. Not just in production as Eli's "go to" guy, but he was also a gutsy performer, leaving everything on the field as we all witnessed in the first Philly game. Having said that, Amani is one year older and coming off a serious injury.

The Giants could use a speed receiver as well as a possession wide out. I would not be surprised to see the Giants use two picks at WR, one of which could easily be a day one pick. On the other hand the draft is very deep at WR and the Giants could do very well at WR in rounds 4 and/or 5. How long they wait may very well depend upon what Toomer's doctors have been telling them privately.

Second Tight End
The loss of Shiancoe in free agency creates a dire need at TE, one I had hoped the Giants would have been able to avoid. As it turns out, re-signing Shiancoe was not an option because of the absolutely crazy amount of money thrown his way. The only viable option on the roster at present is Darcy Johnson. Tight end is one of the most injury prone positions in all of football as Jeremy Shockey seemingly reminds us annually. But more than needing a backup, the Giants need a strong blocking TE to run their 2 and 3 TE formations. The loss of Shiancoe creates perhaps the most "absolute" need on the entire team. It would appear it is not a question of "if" but only of "when" - i.e. what round they make a TE selection. While not requiring a first day pick, I would not be totally surprised by a TE selection as high as round 3.

Defensive Secondary
I honestly don't know what to think about the Giants secondary. They looked so bad at times last year that it was clear there was something far more wrong than simply lack of talent. For most of last year Webster played very soft and made few, if any, aggressive plays on the ball. He appeared afraid of getting beat and seemed to me to have lost his confidence - something that is often the fault of coaching - players playing timid out of fear of making a mistake. You can't play football that way, and certainly not corner. I believe Spags will have a totally different approach - one that focuses upon making aggressive plays on the ball and dismisses getting burned occasionally as something that simply comes with the territory as the price to be paid for aggressive football. I think we will see a totally new Webster next year for this precise reason.

Madison played better towards the end of the year especially in man to man coverage assignments. And I liked McQuarters from the very beginning of preseason. At safety, the word is that Demps was not fully recovered from his injury the year before. However I don't think that can fully explain his woeful displays in tackling in the open field. And Wilson had a better year in 2005 than he did in 2006.

The Giants have clear needs at corner and safety. But, as I've indicated in other posts, I am a big believer in building a dominant front 7 before worrying about the defensive secondary.

Linebacker
I continue to believe this is the one position that would pay the most dividends in overall team improvement and moving the Giants into the upper echelons of NFL teams. Defense wins championships and great defenses are built starting with a dominant front 7. The Giants are solid at DE. They need to upgrade their DT rotation over 2006 and the signing of Marcus Bell should be an upgrade over Jonas Seawright and help make them more stout against the run. I'd like to see them replace William Joseph, but that may have to wait which probably means Willie Joe has, yet again, bought another one year reprieve.

At this point achieving a truly dominant front 7 lies primarily at finding solid long term starters at the two outside linebacker positions. The signing of Kawika Mitchell doesn't meet that criteria. Although he was seeking a multi-year deal, the Giants signed him to a one year one million dollar contract. Clearly they view Mitchell as this year's Brandon Short.

That leaves Wilkinson, Blackburn, and Torbor. Blackburn has made impact plays every time he has taken the field. Having said that, he has remained a backup and must be considered a long shot to make it from street free agent to a 5-10 year starter. Torber is a total enigma. He showed a lot of promise his rookie year and thereafter seemingly disappeared. With all the problems at linebacker last year, he had plenty of opportunity to compete for playing time. His failure to do so cannot give anyone very much confidence about his future.

That leaves Wilkinson. Although he had his ups and downs his rookie season - and didn't even dress for the final game - I suspect the Giants are still very excited about his potential and probably the only linebacker currently on the team that has a realistic chance to be part of the long term solution at OLB for the Giants. That leaves the Giants with a long way to go towards building a truly dominant defensive front 7. In a perfect world they would spend a #1 at WIL, another #1 at SAM, and a couple of second day picks at LB for depth - meaning they are likely 2 maybe 3 drafts away.

Conclusion
Looking purely at need, the Giants biggest concern this year must be LB, WR, backup TE, and OT. Which need is most critical? I believe that depends strictly upon the Giants' internal assessment of Guy Whimper. If they are convinced he is their future, then OT can fall to a day two pick. On the other hand if he hasn't shown enough last year for them to be sure, the need becomes much more critical and may force their hand into day one, and probably even round 1. However, as I noted previously, starting a rookie OT involves far greater risks than starting a rookie LB or WR. Therefore selecting a 1st round OT probably means helping the team in 2008 more than addressing 2007 needs.

Strictly from a positional standpoint, I'd like to see the Giants make the following selections:
1. LB
2. S
3. LB
4. WR
5. TE
6. CB
7a. OL
7b. WR

* Note that I presumed Giants remain high on Whimper thus removing OT as a huge need
** It is interesting to note that my 2006 pre-draft analysis(before the Giants acquired Arrington) called for LB in rounds 1 and 3 also.