Giants - Tampa Preview

The Giants are on a roll and face an important test over the next two games. Historically, it seems that the Giants always seem to play "down" to the level of their opponent, losing games they are supposed to win. However the more I've thought about that statement, the more I think it's probably more myth than reality. It didn't happen to the Giants of 1986 (14-2) or the 1990 team (13-3). The reality is much more likely to be that Super Bowl bound teams win the games they are supposed to win - and teams that lose against weaker opponents do so for the simple reason that they just aren't very good.

The Giants will win both of the next two games - and do so despite a rash of injuries from the Dallas game. Injuries are unavoidable and strike every team each year - the only question being who and when. For the Giants, the "when" part of that equation certainly comes at a fortunate time (of course, let's not forget we are not even half way through the season). But, if there is a "good" time to have to play without a few starters, it is certainly preferable that it be against perhaps the weakest two opponents on the Giants schedule .

This is clearly a game the Giants should win. Tampa Bay is playing a rookie 6th round draft pick at QB and he was presumably a 6th round pick for a reason (although Montana proves the fallacy of putting too much emphasis upon draft position - but hopefully Gradkowski is no Joe Montana). The Bucs rank 27th defensively - 30th against the run and 15th against the pass. They aren't much better offensively, ranking 29th in total yards per game. In contrast, the Giants have the number 2 ranked offense in the NFL and the 21st ranked defense (I have experimented with rankings that adjust for strength of opponents played - and the Giants fare much better when adjusted, ranking 3rd offensively and 9th defensively). Either way, the Giants should win - and win handily - at home tomorrow.

If there is a wild card, it is the weather. High winds are predicted that could force both teams to become one dimensional. That could be a huge advantage for Tampa because their defense otherwise stands little chance of slowing the Giants well balanced powerhouse offense. If it is so windy that the passing game becomes totally moot, it could dramatically alter the outcome of the game.

One statistic of minor interest to Strahan might be sacks allowed. The Bucs have allowed only 11 sacks in 6 games, ranking 10th in the NFL overall. The prediction here, however, is that Strahan breaks LT's "official" record this weekend. The windy day that is predicted could make that less likely if neither team is able to even attempt to throw the ball. However, on the flip side, the odds are that the Giants will take a fairly commanding lead, thus forcing the Bucs to throw the ball in the 2nd half regardless how windy it gets. If so, that should provide Strahan with some prime sack opportunities.

Another statistic to watch is the turnover ratio. Tom Coughlin likes to emphasize the importance of that statistic, and right now the Giants are in the middle of the pack in the NFL with 11 takeaways and 11 giveaways. I am sure TC is not very happy that they are not substantially on the positive side of that particular ledger. It is a statistic that bears watching over the 2nd half of the season - starting tomorrow.

The Giants win the next two games because... (drum roll)... like the Giants of 1986 and 1990, Super Bowl bound teams win the games they are supposed to win.