Sunday, September 26, 2010

Giants Humbled by Indy

The fact the Giants lost to the Colts isn't a big deal. After all, a loss wasn't exactly unexpected, not even by a lopsided score (I predicted a 35-24 Colt victory - ** actually I predicted 35-17 on BBI on Fri but changed it to 35-24 in my Sun morning weblog post - I must have been getting enthused). But the Giants didn't just lose. They were completely taken apart by Indy. They were physically out muscled by a finesse team. It was a total deconstruction on both sides of the ball. The Giants were embarrassed and humbled - or at least they should have been. Days after the game Antron Rolle publicly expressed his shock that his fellow teammates seemed unconcerned and accepting of the loss. I'm not sure what's worse: the lack of togetherness demonstrated by Rolle expressing his thoughts publicly - or the substance of his attack.

The defense gave up huge yards on the ground as Fewell decided to dress only two defensive tackles and spent most of the first half in a 4-1-6 defensive scheme that the Colts readily attacked with the highest number of rushing attempts in the Peyton Manning era. Therefore, although the defense didn't stand tall last Sunday, it is difficult to use that as an indicator of future performance because (a) it was the Colts after all; and (b) Fewell stubbornly refused to adjust out of his single linebacker scheme until the game was already out of reach.

The greater concern is the Giants' inability to run the ball on offense. The offensive line is being manhandled physically and it appears they are no longer capable of being a running team. Worse, Brandon Jacobs just doesn't seem to be capable of getting it through his head that the sole reason for his NFL roster spot is the intimidation his unique size, power, and speed allows. For two years now Jacobs has talked about his speed and ability to juke and side step to make defenders miss. Those statements have always troubled me because they demonstrated a lack of understanding of what makes him unique. There are not many running backs in the history of the league that have had the ability to physically intimidate a defense. To be the physical aggressor and make defenders truly fear for their physical safety. Brandon Jacobs has that very rare ability. But, sadly, that unique gift appears to be going to waste because Jacobs doesn't "get it". Last week he attempted to string a run out wide and while running parallel to the line of scrimmage was tackled easily for a loss. Coughlin was furious (undoubtedly at Jacobs but almost certainly more so with the inability of the offensive line to block any more) and pulled Jacobs from the game. Jacobs, clearly frustrated, threw his helmet into the stands which fortunately didn't injure anyone but did later cost him a $10,000 fine from the league.

The bottom line is that it appears the Giants are not going to have a running game this year. And, although Eli Manning had a career year last year, the Giants are not the Colts. If the Giants fail to end the year as a top ten rushing offense, they are not making the playoffs in 2010. End of story.

Worse, last Sunday the offensive line was unable to provide any protection for Eli. Zero. Nada. Zip. Manning was sacked, hit, and under pressure on 100% of his throws. But, as worrisome as the pass protection failures were, any hopes for this season start and end with the ability to run the ball. Today the Giants get a real test in that regard. They face a very physical Tennessee Titan team that excels in football 101. Run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. And Tennessee does both extremely well. I fully expect and anticipate the Giants' defense will have success in stopping Chris Johnson - at least controlling him sufficiently to win the game.

What is not clear, however, is whether the Giants offense can win its battles against this Tennessee defense. Based upon the first two games of 2010, I have my doubts. In fact, based upon what we've seen, dating back to last year, I believe it is pretty clear that the Giants cannot run against this Titans team - and that the only way the Giants running game can succeed is for the Giants to open up throwing to set up the run. Of course, that could be problematic if the offensive line can't protect Eli - but then again the Titans don't have Freeney and Mathis.

Obviously every game is important. At the end of the day, however, a win is a win, regardless of how they play. And a loss won't be catastrophic if the Giants answer the doubters with a great game on both sides of the ball and simply lose because of a turnover or quirky play or two. But if they lose because of continued problems on the offensive side of the ball (or if the defense surprises me and lets Chris Johnson run wild) - then the wheels on the bus can come off pretty quickly and this team can lose all confidence. I continue to believe the confidence of the team is pretty fragile and at a cross roads - they need a statement game on both sides of the ball to serve as a springboard to believe in themselves.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Giants Open Stadium & Season With 31-18 Win

As the game wound down it wasn't clear whether we were watching ping pong or football as the teams turned the ball over in a bizarre sequence of six straight possessions ending with turnovers. But, as I posted before the game, this was a critical game for the Giants for several reasons and, at the end of the day, they won, 31-18.

Despite the sloppy play, there were some big positives. First and foremost, the run defense was solid. Carolina is a running team, presumably one of the best. The Giants held them to 89 yards on 24 carries that included one run of 29 yards. The next longest run was 8 yards. This was a considerable improvement over 2009 and a very, very good sign. If they can be consistent and maintain it for the full season, the Giants will be competitive in most games without any of the blowouts witnessed in 2009.

Once Carolina fell behind and were forced to play catch up, the Giants demonstrated they have the horses to pound the QB, generating four sacks and knocking QB Matt Moore out of the game with a concussion with just over two minutes remaining. They also had three interceptions, all in the end zone, one of which was a fantastic play by safety Deon Grant, coming off his receiver and moving perhaps 20 yards laterally to leap in front of the receiver to make an acrobatic catch. The Grant interception came with the Giants playing three safeties, a scheme designed to shore up the run defense but which paid dividends big time with at least two (if not all three) interceptions coming with that scheme on the field.

On offense, Eli Manning had a great game and spread the ball around to a group of receivers that are quickly becoming one of the most difficult trios in the league to defend. Second year first round pick Nicks had a coming out party with three touchdown receptions. But it was the emergence of Mario Manningham that is probably the more significant development of this game. Most of the league already knew about Steve Smith and the potential of Hakeem Nicks. But Mario Manningham's four receptions for 86 yards (21.25 ypc) put the league on notice that the Giants have three legitimate receivers that warrant big time attention. The only negative in the passing game were the three interceptions, each coming off a tipped ball. Whether the throws were too high or they were balls that should have been caught, probably matters less than the fact the errors were (and will be ) correctable.

There were, however, some negatives and real concerns. In the short term, the loss of Boss could be huge, especially if he is forced to the sideline for an extended number of games. The concern is not the passing game but the loss of blocking in the running game. When Boss went down, the Giants suddenly looked like a junior high school team trying to run the ball. Of course, the running game wasn't exactly clicking on all cylinders before Boss got hurt so it is difficult to judge the extent to which his absence played a part. The Giants actually had negative rushing yardage for the game as of when they walked off the field at half time. And while the running game was better after some half time adjustments, it was still a far cry from the dominance of 2007/2008 and far from acceptable.

However, perhaps the larger, more long term concern, is with special teams. Both the punt and kick off coverage units were horrid yielding short fields to the Panthers throughout the game. And Matt Dodge certainly didn't help averaging a miserable 16 yards on his two punt attempts. But, if I'm Tom Coughlin, I'm not ready to jettison the struggling punter when the larger issue is the coverage units. Hopefully Dodge is a temporary problem which will work itself out. However the weak coverage units, an issue dating back several years now, is like an out-of-control fire about to burst into a complete conflagration. It is going to cost the Giants games if something isn't done quickly.

Questions with the offensive line also remain. The Giants starting five have more combined starts, by a wide margin, than any other offensive line in the league. However, is that a positive reflecting great experience or a negative reflecting an inability to infuse youth into the line? Certainly the loss of Will Beatty to a broken foot means any youth movement will be delayed until the second half of the season, at best. The coaching staff was apparently concerned enough about this issue that they chose to release linebacker Bryan Kehl, who received immediate interest from several other teams, rather than placing Beatty on injured reserve despite the fact Beatty likely won't be ready to play for another 6-8 weeks at the earliest.

Lastly, I have some unhappiness with the schemes called by Fewell. Yes, I love the three safeties. And I'm thrilled with the stout defense against the run. But I'm not a fan of his decision to rush four and keep seven in coverage on too many obvious passing downs, especially in the first half. This wasn't Peyton Manning the Giants were facing at QB. It was Matt Moore. And Moore demonstrated that he was clearly susceptible to being hurried into poor throws and decisions. I honestly can't fathom the repeated decision in the first half to rush only four, giving Moore the time to look over the field and pick his targets. And it hurt the Giants as Carolina marched down the field to score just before the first half ended. The Giants showed what their pass rush can do once Carolina was forced to play catchup and when the Giants got more aggressive and were able to pin their ears back and fly after the QB.

Tonight, however, the Giants face the real deal in Peyton Manning who is not going to wilt under pressure like Matt Moore. Unlike last week when they could (and should) have blitzed all game long, tonight the Giants face a QB who earns his living making blitz happy teams pay. Tonight the Giants are going to have to generate a rush relying on their front four and with well timed and disguised blitzes.

It would be nice to believe the Giants could win a low scoring game. But shutting down this Colts offense is a very difficult thing especially without generating multiple monster 8-12 minute time consuming drives on offense, which would be truly heroic, but doubtful, for this Giants team at this point in time. Therefore, as much as it would be nice to use the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field, the role of the running game is likely to be more important in keeping the Colts pass rush honest to buy Eli more time. For, in the end, I believe the Giants only win tonight's game if Eli outscores Peyton. And, although I don't predict it, the funny thing is I think he can. Colts 35, Giants 24 in a fun game.

Out With the Old, In With the New

The Giants open their 2010 season in less than five hours. The first game of any season brings excitement and enthusiasm. Every team stands on equal footing at the starting line with equal chances, at least theoretically, at the ultimate prize.

However, for the 2010 Giants, this is not simply another opening day game. It has far greater meaning and significance. It is the inaugural game in their brand new stadium against the very same team that embarrassed them last December in the final Giants' game ever played in the old Giants Stadium. Despite some changes, this is largely the same defense that in 2009 gave up the 2nd most points in Giants' franchise history. Despite some heralded changes - Fewell replacing Sheridan and the free agent signing of Antrel Rolle - an undercurrent of uncertainty remains.

That undercurrent can quickly translate into a loss of confidence if the going gets tough and they stumble. Moreover, unlike last year, the Giants don't start the season against the dregs of the league. Next week they face the Colts in Indy, a game they are unlikely to win. Lose today and they are probably staring an 0-2 start in the face. And teams that lose the first two games of a season are, overwhelmingly, long shots to make the playoffs. Since the league went to 16 games in 1978, only 11% of teams were able to overcome an 0-2 start and make it to the post season.

More importantly, this is a game the Giants should win. It will also provide a good test of the team's primary failure a year ago - their inability to stop the run on defense. With the ever increasing reliance upon passing in the NFL, the link between stopping the run and rushing the passer is often overlooked by fans. A successful running game is important to a passing offense because it forces the defense to honor both run and pass at all times. The flip side - eliminate an opponent's running game - enables the defense to focus on an all out pass rush. In 2009 the inability to stop the run forced the Giants to honor both run and pass at all times, and was, in my view, the primary cause of the diminished pass rush we all witnessed.

Not surprisingly, Tom Coughlin has openly stated that stopping the run is the first and foremost first step that needs to be taken to correct the ills of 2009. The Giants will get a stiff first test today. Last year Carolina became the first team in NFL history to have two running backs exceed 1,100 yards in the same NFL season. Thus, the Giants' run defense is, perhaps, facing the most difficult test it will face all year in the opening game of the season. Their measure of success against the run today will go a long way towards answering the lingering questions from 2009.

The other hangover from 2009 is the running game on offense. There has been plenty of talk all week about Bradshaw's ascension to starter at running back. However, I suspect the switch may have more to do with the weakening condition of the offensive line, and the need for a quick cut back runner, than it does about Jacobs versus Bradshaw. At the end of the day, I continue to believe that if the Giants are going to successful in 2010, they will need the angry, mean Brandon Jacobs of 2007 and 2008, lowering his shoulder and intimidating defenders.

So, the Giants begin 2010 facing a very important first game. Lose, and they almost certainly go 0-2, leaving them statistical long shots to make the playoffs before the season has barely begun. Beyond winning, however, their run defense, which literally shamed the franchise last year, faces a very stiff test against one of the best running teams in the league. One thing is certain - the fortunes of the 2010 Giants will be in much clearer focus as of 4:00 this afternoon.

Saturday, September 04, 2010

2010 Final Roster - For Now

If they make no changes, the opening day 2010 roster will look like this:

Offense (24)
Quarterbacks (2): Eli Manning, Sage Rosenfels,
Running Backs (4): Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, D.J. Ware, Darius Reynaud
Fullbacks (1): Madison Hedgecock
Wide Receivers (6): Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Ramses Barden, Victor Cruz, Duke Calhoun
Tight Ends (2): Kevin Boss, Travis Beckum
Offensive Linemen (9): David Diehl, Rich Seubert, Shaun O'Hara, Chris Snee, Kareem McKenzie, Will Beatty, Adam Koets, Shawn Andrews, Mitch Petrus

Defense (26)
Defensive Linemen: (9): Justin Tuck, Barry Cofield, Chris Canty, Mathias Kiwanuka, Osi Umenyiora, Rocky Bernard, Dave Tollefson, Jason Pierre-Paul, Linval Joseph
Linebackers (8): Jonathan Goff, Michael Boley, Keith Bulluck, Bryan Kehl, Clint Sintim, Chase Blackburn, Phillip Dillard, Gerris Wilkinson
Cornerbacks (5): Corey Webster, Terrell Thomas, Aaron Ross, Bruce Johnson, D.J. Johnson
Safeties (4): Antrel Rolle, Deon Grant, Kenny Phillips, Michael Johnson

Specialists (3)
Kicker (1): Lawrence Tynes
Punter (1): Matt Dodge
Long Snapper (1): Zak DeOssie