Saturday, May 27, 2006

Memorial Weekend Blues

It's that quiet time of year... the draft and free agency are long gone... mini-camp is already over... and the opening of camp is still months away. A good time perhaps to reflect upon factors that will likely determine success versus failure for the G-Men this season.

1. Defensive tackles. The middle of the front four is a big question mark. William Joseph hasn't yet shown much, despite last year's plaudits from the press and coaches (praise I perceived to be more motivational than anything else). I'm not convinced Joseph demonstrated enough last year to justify anything beyond a bit more time to prove himself. At the other tackle spot, there isn't any player competing for the starting position that has any real experience. Duckett, Seawright, and Cofield are all, in essence, rookies. Any way you dice it, deciding before camp even opens that you will head into the season starting a "rookie" can't possibly be considered a position of strength.

The only comfort is the curious lack of attention paid to defensive tackle this off season - an indication, hopefully, that Giant's management believes everything is under control. Let's hope that's not just wishful thinking.

2. Strahan/Osi. Can they both bring it again? Weakness at defensive tackle may require more attention to the run but I'm betting that the addition of Arrington, a healthy Pierce, and creative use of defensive formations & personnel will allow the duo to lead the league in combined sacks yet one more time.

3. Tiki. I wanted a 2nd round pick at RB but Giant's management obviously feel Tiki still has sufficient gas left in the tank. My hunch is that the Giants aerial attack is strong and diverse enough to keep teams sufficiently off balance to allow Tiki to run free and lead the league in combined yardage once again this year.

4. Eli. I debated where to rank the importance of Eli to overall team success this year. On the one hand there are so many weapons on offense, the Giants can have success without Eli being an all-pro quarterback. On the other hand, team confidence depends upon Eli establishing he is the real deal. Forget the comebacks. Forget the 80 yard pass plays. Eli needs to demonstrate consistent accuracy - hitting the sweet spot game in and game out without the receivers breaking stride.

5. Shockey and Burress. Team chemistry is the concern here. Will either or both once again sulk when they perceive the offense isn't clicking or being run they way they want? It's time they stepped up and became team leaders and have a postive - or at least not a negative - influence on team chemistry.

There are other questions of course. The entire defensive secondary for example. But does team success really depend upon the secondary? If the defensive front 7 are strong (see points 1&2), then the secondary won't matter. And if the defensive front 7 turn out to be a weakness (see points 1&2), then the secondary, regardless how strong, still won't matter.

And there are interesting questions at linebacker - just not the type to cause any concern. Will Arrington be a super-star? He doesn't need to be. Will Wilkinson push Emmons for playing time by the end of the season? I hope so, but team success or failure won't depend upon it.

Will the offensive line turn into a force? They are a young unit, will play together for several more seasons, and will become steadily stronger each year. The feeling here is that they are solid enough already and don't have to be the league's best o-line this year.

At this point, before summer camp starts, my analysis is that how the two defensive tackles play will be the most critical factor to this coming season. Their strength or weakness will be crucial components to whether Strahan/Osi once again mount an effective pass rush and whether Pierce is amongst the league leaders in tackles defending the run. Their play will determine whether this defense is an awesome destructive force to be reckoned with or a liability that can't drag itself off the field (with obvious own implications for the offensive side of the ball).

If defensive tackle turns out to be a strength, this could be one of the strongest teams in years. If, however, they can't plug the middle, it could be a long season. The bet here? Who knows. That's why it's a question mark. Let's just hope it's a wild and fun ride!

Sunday, May 21, 2006

Post Draft - May 07, 2006

So, how does reality compare with my pre-draft post?
Pretty good actually. Start with acquisition of Arrington days before the draft (after my prior post) and a 1st round trade down and the Giants in essence get 6 players in the 1st four rounds. Lets do a comparison.

I listed positional needs as OLB(2)-DT-RB-WR-DE-TE and they filled all but RB/TE. My desired first four rounds was OLB-RB-OLB-DT. Including Arrington, the G-Men went OLB-WR-OLB-DT (plus adding 1st round DE and 4th round OT). Pretty damn good draft positionally speaking (at least per my pre-draft desires).

The season is coming when Tiki will lose a step. Selecting DE/WR in the first two rounds - and no RB at all - means the Giants are gambling Tiki has the gas for one more year. If he does, Moss should have an immediate impact. WR instead of TE makes sense now because they need the ability to stretch the field to open the underneath routes and Moss should do that.

Most of all, I like the 1st round selection of Mathias Kiwanuka. I mentioned DE in my pre-draft post because, as I mentioned, the draft has to be approached with a 3-5 year viewpoint and regardless of conditioning Strahan's age means he can only have one, maybe two years left. Having Tuck and Kiwanuka in the wings should leave the Giants set when Strahan leaves.

I think this was a great draft for the Giants positionally speaking (i.e. on paper). It certainly filled the needs I listed. The professional analysts all look at immediate impact but when looking out 3-5 years, this was a great draft. Selecting OT Whimper in the 4th round may pay off 2-3 years from now if it enables them to use the 2008-09 first round pick on something other than OT.

What are my thoughts for the 2006/07 campaign?
The defense should be much stronger later in the upcoming season. The front 7 - the single most important part of any champion team - should be very strong (and awesome in 2-3 years assuming Tuck/Kiwanuka replace Strahan - next year they need to replace Emmons and get a pro bowl cornerback). This year the opposition will have to attack the Giants "up the gut" or at Emmons on the weak side. The Giants' pass rush and special packages should be awesome this year - an attack defense of the type I've always loved - they may not be Taylor-Carson-Banks-Marshall, but Strahan-Osi-Pierce-Arrington-(Tuck-Torbor) should be outrageous. Against this defense, opposing teams will be forced to avoid 2nd/3rd and long, thus putting pressure on 1st down - allowing the Giants to focus against the run on 1st, which should help mask the weaknesses mentioned above. Should be fun to watch, especially later into the season as the special packages mature.

On offense, everything once again depends upon Manning's accuracy. As mentioned last post, I am less interested in last minute heroics than I am in seeing great accuracy, something that simply hasn't been there. The weapons are obviously in place, although I'm still worried about Shockey (still waiting for him to play like his rookie year), Tiki's age, and Burris' emotional strength. Moss should have the most immediate impact of any of the draftees. One year Tiki is going to visibly lose a step - I just hope it isn't this year since his replacement obviously isn't here yet. The good news is that the improved defense should mean greater balance and less pressure on the offense to win games - which will hopefully allow Eli and his cast of stars develop a more efficient and effective short game. If we see consistent sharp crisp 8 yard completions I'll be thrilled.

My post draft/free agency conclusion?
The Giants are a very strong team and much needed balance between offense and defense has been achieved. The problem is they live in a great Division - any of these four teams can win the Division - and the Giants' schedule is hellacious. They are stronger, yet matching last year's 11-5 record has to be considered pure fantasy. The good news is that the Eagles-Cowboys-Redskins all have to play each other too. The Giants may not win the Division - they even may not make the playoffs - but every week this upcoming season should be a war and incredibly fun to watch.

Pre-Draft Entry for Fri April 14, 2006

Just finished reviewing my entries from 2005. While I wasn't necessarily on target with individual game predictions, my thoughts on the Giants, as a team, were solid. Here is my thinking two weeks before draft day after a rather hum-drum free agency period:

1. The Defense needs to be rebuilt. OSI and Pierce are the only two solid pieces at this point (Strahan will play, but how much gas is left in his tank? ... and besides, my focus here is building the team of the next 5-8 years, not just 2006/07). All the emphasis during free agency was on the cornerback/safety spots... but it is the front 7 that wins football and the Giants need to add 3 more all-pro caliber players to join Osi and Pierce - that's three drafts and since each draft needs 2 years minimum for impact - that means we are 4-5 years out.

2. The offense should dominate starting this year. This is Eli's 3rd season and he is going to have to start earning his rep. What scares me the most is that he has simply not impressed me. His accuracy is atrocious. He throws off balance. If he doesn't show dramatic improvement, he will look like a mistake to me - he may become a mediocre or even a good player... but if he is going to be a great all-pro quarterback, he better start showing it this year - and showing it dramatically and in a big way. More than the 300 yard games - more than the wonder finishes... I want to see great throws time in and time out... I want to see great accuracy... I want to see the ball in the sweet spot 90 percent of the time with the receivers not breaking stride... My fear... and prediction... is that we are not going to see that with Eli... not for a few years anyway... And that will put a limit on what should otherwise be a great offense.

3. Overall Team Positional Needs: OLB (2) DT RB WR DE TE

4. My 2006 Draft Desires (not a prediction) By Round:
1st: OLB
2nd: RB
3rd: OLB
4th: DT

Giants Limp Into Playoffs - Wed December 28, 2005

Well, I'm home for my annual Christmas week vacation - all my girls are home which is nice. However, this is about the Giants and they are not exactly providing me with any holiday cheer.
Emmons was placed in IR - in my opinion he will never play in a big blue uniform again. Giants clearly need linebacking help and that better be the focus in this year's draft and off-season free agent acquisition list. They need not one but two outside backers. They also need cornerback and safety help - so the defense is going to need a real overhaul.

Meanwhile, we enter the playoffs on a down note - and with a totally makeshift linebacking crew. The playoffs is a time for defense, and we have none. They are likely to lose in the first round - and definitely the second. So, this will be one of my last Giants posts for the season, since, for the Giants, the season is almost over.

Post Redskins - Christmas Day, 2005

There is only one way the Giants could have approached the games starting this week - that they were already in the playoffs where you lose and your season is over. They showed the world yesterday they aren't going anywhere in this year's playoffs - they aren't ready for prime time yet. They can find excuses - Antonio Pierce's replacement, Blackburn, going down and an offensive line that still was missing players and still bruised and battered. But, making excuses is exactly that - excuses. If this was a team ready to reach that next level, this team would have played with the kind of intensity and emotion that is needed at that next level - something totally absent yesterday.

This was a game that could have been won - and more importantly this game wasn't won because this team wasn't ready - wasn't capable - of playing smash mouth high intensity football.

Next week? I'm not ready to think about next week. Next week should have been about a bye or home field advantage, not about survival. I'm down about the lack of intensity and need to get past that before I can think about the Raiders.

Pre-Redskins - December 24, 2005

While the Giants certainly have the power players to win this game, it is going to be a tough one. Redskins are on a roll, playing very physical ball, and the crowd is going to be wild. I think the Giants chances are 50/50 - not exactly what you want when so much is on the line. This isn't just about winning the Division, but how far the Giants could go in the playoffs. This isn't just about home field advantage or a bye week either - it is about confidence and expectations - Giants win and their confidence and expectations grow - and in the NFL you often are what you think you are. Indeed, that is exactly what makes the Redskins so formidable today.

Prediction... Giants 23, Skins 20

Postscript... last week I predicted Tiki wouldn't get much yardage with both starting tackles out and 4 of 5 offensive lineman not starting where they normally do. Shows how much I know. Tiki goes on to set a Giants all time record with 220 yards rushing. Let's hope he finds room again today - but I doubt it - Redskins know they must stop Tiki and force the game into Manning's arms.

Sat December 17, 2005 - Pre Kansas City

Devastating injuries last week against the Eagles. Antonio Pierce, without whom the Giants can't stop the run - and if they can't stop the run, that will make them susceptible to the pass and will hurt their pass rush. So, they will have to rely upon the offense to make the difference today. Unfortunately they also lost both starting tackles - and Eli has been really struggling. It's not just that he is throwing so many interceptions - it is so much more than that. It is because he is way off target - zero accuracy - something I've noticed in even his best games - he rarely puts the ball in the sweet spot - but now his balls are wildly off - frequently high, increasing the liklihood of interception - and subjecting his receivers to potentially devastating hits.

So, this is going to be a very tough game. Unless the defense somehow finds a way to stop the run without Pierce, everything is going to depend upon Eli - Tiki is there of course - but without both starting tackles, we can't really expect a great running game. For the Giants, it seems very likely they are going to have to rely upon winning the next two, because a W today seems to be an unreachable dream.

Prediction: KC 33 - Giants 24

Mon December 12, 2005, Post Eagles Game

Home today, so I get to write a bit about the Giants. Once again the Giants played poorly against a weakened foe on the road. This time it was the defense being exposed, as I had feared before the game. The Giants defense made the battered Eagles offense look like a bunch of all-pros. It does not bode well for the Giants at this time of year.

On top of that, some scary injuries - Pettigut and McKenzie - then Pierce ... also William Josephs again (but I'm not sure the Giants aren't better off with him out). None look too threatening, but it still has to be a concern.

The offense again sputtered - three interceptions - a pattern developing at the wrong time of year. Tiki had good stats but really was getting very tough yards - in fact many of those yards were pure toughness by Tiki.

I'm also very concerned about Plaxico and his ability not to get frustrated. Nothing I've seen on the field or read... but I have this sense that frustration, anger, or whatever could be building since he is no longer the hero he was earlier in the season (not really his fault, but...)

So, these Giants showed me they are not yet ready for prime time. The rest of the season, how they play will be almost as important as the wins - since if they don't get back on track, it won't matter much when they get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs.

Sun December 11, 2005 - Pre Eagle Game

I didn't make any entries for two weeks - missing Seattle and Dallas - two huge games! Both games were great games for the Giants and, for different reasons, will help the Giants move forward into the playoffs this year. The Seattle game, while a loss, was a great confidence builder - to go into Seattle and basically win the game, well that says it all. Then last week - certainly one of the biggest games in recent Giants history - the big 'D was "lights out" fantastic - they played like it was 1984-85. Not only did they win the game but they played with a confidence that should help as them as they close out the season.

The offense last week? Horrible. However, this is on Eli and, as such, is correctible. Tiki had a good game (not great, but 115 yards is still a 100-yard game). The problem was the lack of a passing attack and that left the offense floundering - and 90 percent was due to lack of accuracy from Manning.

I'm still not sold on this team for this year. I am still not convinced this defense is a good as it has appeared these last few weeks - and suspect it may get exposed early into the playoffs. And the offense is too inconsistent - that's Manning - the talent is certainly there and it could all fall together, but that is unlikely this year. But it should be fun and the long term future is bright.

Today's game is going to be tough. In Philly. A team embarrassed in front of a national audience Mon night. There shouldn't be much trouble stopping Philly's offense - this game should be won if the Giants don't give up any turnovers. The key? Eli, with such a bad game last week, might feel he has to prove something - and that could be disaster. He needs to take the sack. Hand off. Dump off. Take the sack again. Philly can't score against the Giants big D the way they are playing, so Eli needs to not get frustrated when the Giants offense sputters - wait for the opportunity and it will come. If there are zero Giant turnovers, Giants over Eagles, 20-0.

Ok, so where does that leave me with the rest of the season? I pegged the loss to Seattle but, happily, G-men downed the Cowboys. Still going with a W over the Eagles followed by a W over KC at home. It is the Redskins game that now has me wondering - I picked Giants to win in Wash, now not so sure. I still pick them to defeat Raiders in last game. Let's say 3-1 over final four games for a final record of 11-5, good enough to win the Division.

Sun November 20, 2005 - Post Eagles Game

ok... it is Sun about an hour after the Giants defeated the Eagles... the analyists all say Eli bounced back, and I suppose statistically he did... and the Giants did win... but... my view is that this Giants team isn't dominating and is going to struggle against the Cowboys... clearly the Cowboy game looms large... Giants barely defeat Eagles - imagine if McMahon and TO played
Avoiding key injuries will be key - Tabor is a big loss - William Joseph too (although not sure anyone notices) ... for a moment during Eagle game it appeared Strahan had reinjured his pectoral - then Tiki went gimp - turns out both returned - but center O'Hara did go down - at least there is a good backup in Jason Whittle - and Pettigut knocked out of game too and his potential loss is even more serious than O'Hara since his replacement is 34 yo Bob Whitfield who is both too old & too slow...

The secondary was exposed - perhaps it was exposed by the lack of a pass rush in the second half (the secondary has been ok past 3 games because of the healhy pass rush that was missing today)... and the offense should be dominating but instead struggles... the only consolation is that this team has the potential to break out at any moment... and it is always a good sign when a team plays poorly and wins...

Ok, so where does that leave my predictions for the balance of the season? ... here goes... loss to Seattle... loss to Cowboys... win over Eagles... win over KC... win over Redskins... loss to Raiders - final record 10-6 good enough for wildcard

First Entry (Sat Nov 11, 2005 - Pre Vikings Game)

Ok, this is my first stab at a blog... 5:45 am on a Sat morning (Nov 11, 2005)... I woke up at 3:30 and couldn't sleep, so i found myself online and exploring yahoo... remembered hearing something about yahoo-blogs... decided to check it out and voila - here's my first entry
thought it might be fun to track my private thoughts on the Giants (not public) which I could go back in time later on to read what my earlier thoughts had been...

This is clearly the best Giants' offense since I've followed the Giants closely (1970). In fact, it isn't even close - if this Giants' offense is a 9... the next closest Giants' offense in the past would is a 4.5... and the scary thing is that this offense will be around a long time and do nothing but get better... Toomer is in his last year as a Giant and will be replaced with another stud receiver... the only real issue for the future is replacing Tiki.

At the same time... this is the worst Giants' defense since 1970 - and as a Giants die-hard, that is a difficult thing to swallow (only thing that makes it even slightly palatable is the offense). This defense needs a complete overhaul - top to bottom. Strahan is done after this year (whether he stays or not, his years as a dominant force are over), and he is the only stud on this defense (ok, i like Pierce too - but Pierce isn't Harry Carson). The first thing Giants need to do is to restore the linebacker tradition - this Giants' defense won't satisfy me until we have two all pro linebackers at the same time... then throw in a great defensive line. In my book cornerbacks/safeties are a dime a dozen... they are great only because of the front 7... and for the few who are great on their own, what good are they without a great front 7? Truly great teams are built with dominant defenses and dominant defenses are built with the front 7. The Giants have a weak front 7 that must be restored.

What has surprised me is the play of the defense the past two games... but that must be considered suspect in view of any frank analysis of the players - as proven by what we have seen (borne out by the statistics) in the first 6 games.

So, what do we have? A great offense and a suspect defense. With cold windy weather coming and tough inner-divisional games, it isn't going to be pretty... Giants beat Minn... lose both games to Phil... lose remaining game to Dallas... beat Washington... lose to Seattle... lose to Oakland... beat KC. Prediction: 9-7

Postscript... ok... I forgot to mention several critical things:
(1) a huge reason for the Giants' success this season is the play of special teams... from top to bottom the best special teams the Giants have ever had (so this team is the best offense and the best special teams)... both kickers... both returners... and the coverage teams... all around great special teams contributions
(2) the free agent signings... only 4 players signed during the off season... and all 4 were critical, fabulous additions at critical spots on the roster - all 4 home runs (Burris, Pierce, Feely, & McKenzie) - and throw in what appears to be a strong draft (again only 4 players but all four look like they could stick - Brandon Jacobs... Eric Moore... Justin Tuck... Corey Webster)
(3) I don't see any NFC team that is clearly better than the Giants the rest of this year... what I do see, however, is that the most dangerous threats to the Giants are from within their own division - the Eagles who have a 50/50 shot of having a great 2nd half - and if they do it will be at the expense of the Giants - and the Cowboys who are having a great season and are more balanced than the Giants - a weaker offense but their defense is much stronger - with both the Eagles and Cowboys being the primary threats, the Giants could have a terrible second half record.